Dow Jones Bleeds - Will Nifty Arrest The Global Downtrend?

Dow Jones in its last trading session made no attempt to recover from low and kept its steady southwards journey in trade yesterday. It looked almost like a surrender of the bulls to bear hug. That does not augur well for global markets. What spooked US markets which resulted in Dow closing 120 points in red on 28 Oct 2009? Nothing out of the way. Just the same old stuff, same old conditions, same old story. It seems global investors are pulling out money from equity markets and parking it in Dollars. Hence increased demand for dollar and that's how you can see the Greenback rise against all currencies except yen. But wasn't it just the opposite situation last week? There was unambiguous opinion across the planet that dollar was losing its sheen and was likely to depreciate against all major currencies. Well news flows as per market behaviour and not the other way round.

The long and short of all this is that Asian markets are trading deep in red today ie 29 Oct 2009. That sends shivers down the collective spine of bulls in India. With bulls quivering, bears will naturally seize control. That is how the situation would seem to any of us for today's trade. Moreover its expiry day for derivatives today and hence there will be lot of nervousness on the part of traders. However it seems to me that Indian markets will arrest the downward trend in global equities by showing the way up, starting today. News will follow later to justify the move and that is why I can't put a finger to any reason at the moment. All I can say is that the Elliot Wave calculations suggest an upward move from here in Nifty and Sensex. Remember we still have an upside Nifty target to reach at 5280 before this year ends or maybe just at the beginning of New Year.

Whatever be the case it will be nice if you can pick up any or some of the shares suggested below:-

• Punjlloyd buy at 180/185 for a target of 225 in short term.
• Canara Bank buy at 324/327 for a target of 357 in short term.
• DCHL buy at 45/47 for a target of 62 in short term.
• Dena Bank buy at 61/63 for target of 70 in short term.
• Dr Reddy buy at 950 for target of 1050 in two weeks.
• Voltas buy at 141/144 for target of 168 in two weeks
• Crompton Greaves buy between 340 and 350 for a target of 425 in short term.
• IDBI buy at 113/115 for a target of 128 in short term.
• IOB buy at 113/114 for a target of 126 in short term.

Day Trading - Status of 23rd Oct Positions

On 23 Oct 2009 before the Indian markets opened, I had given buy recommendations for six stocks futures. for quick reference visit this link here : http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-day-trade-today-recommendations-for.html

Now let us run a cross check on the status of these positions. Out of the six recommendations one buy price of DLF Oct Fut was not met in trade. For rest of the five positions here is my outlook for each position:-

1. Centurytex Oct Fut. This position had an intra-day low of 488.35 and closed at 493.2. If you have bought around 495 you should be holding your position for next trading sessions. In worst case scenario it will give you 498.5 where you may exit without any injury. But if you are a little brave hearted then you should keep the position for a target of 550 till expiry. Maximum downside risk is 467. This I am advocating because this scrip is still maintaining its swing, and has also completed two long term bullish patterns, viz 'Cup and Handle' and 'Rounding Bottom'. Its actual worth is 920/950 in one year's time.
2. LITL Oct Fut. This position had an intra-day low of 510.3 and closed at 513.75. If you have bought around 513 then you should be holding this position for next trading sessions. You will get an opportunity to exit between 533 and 541. Its actual potential though is 620 in short term.
3. Nagarconst Oct Fut. The position had an intra-day low of 156.95 and closed at 159.2. If you have bought around 164 then you should be holding the position till minimum target of 170. Its actual worth is 220/240 in medium term of about six months because it has completed the long term strong bullish pattern of 'Rounding Bottom'. However before surging to 240 level it may retest the levels between 120 and 140.
4. HDIL Oct Fut. The position made an intra-day low of 370.7 before closing at 375.85. If you have bought around 375 then you should be holding the position till minimum 390. The scrip is worth 500/515 in medium term of six months.
5. Punjlloyd Oct Fut. The position touched an intra-day low of 255.2 and finally closed at 259.55. If you have bought at around 270 then you should be looking to exit at 277.

Why Day Trade Today - Recommendations For 23 Oct 2009

Why didn't I give any day trading recommendations on 22 Oct 2009? Yesterday I had given no recommendations for trading in stocks futures. In fact I had not posted anything and remained just a silent spectator throughout the day. For compulsive traders in the market it will seem to be almost a Herculean task - not do anything on a particular day. But then it is one of the qualities you will have to consciously develop if you want to survive in futures trading over the long run.

I still haven't answered my question.Why I didn't give recommendations to trade futures yesterday was because I was not certain. I didn't like the general sentiment developing across global markets. Whenever there is doubt creeping up in your mind just stay away from market. Let it do whatever it wants to do. The worst that will happen is that you will miss out a profitable trade or two. But then that is erring on the positive. At least this scenario cannot burn a hole in your pocket, nor take your peace of mind away. No sleepless night!

But today is different. The US markets have again taken the lead to show the direction and mind of the markets. Asian markets are pleasantly trading in green at 8.30AM IST and all seems to be fine up above.For day trading, today my recommendations are as under :-

1. Buy Centurytex Oct Fut at 495/500 for a target of 534. If you plan to keep it for tomorrow then this position should give 561 in couple of day's time.

2. Buy LITL Oct Fut at 513/518 for a target of 568. In case you hold the position till expiry then it should give you a target of 588 to 600.

3. Buy Nagarconst Oct Fut at 164/167 for a target of 171.If you plan to carry your position then you can see a target of 171/180 and finally 188/190 being achieved in couple of days.

4. Buy HDIL Oct Fut at 375/380 for a target of 400.

5. Buy Punjlloyd Oct Fut at 270/274 for a target of 286. If not today then you can keep it for tomorrow.

6. Buy DLF Oct Fut at 445/450 for a target of 465. You may plan to keep your position open also for a couple of days for a target of 500 plus

Day Trading Recommendations for 21 Oct 2009

For day trading today ie 21 Oct 09 the following are my recommended scrips :-

1. HDIL Oct Fut. Buy one lot (lot size 774) of HDIL Oct Fut at 375/377 and square off after taking a profit of Rs 10/15.
2. DLF Oct Fut. Buy one lot of DLF Oct Fut (lot size 800) at 447/449 and square off after taking a profit of Rs 15/20.
3. Nagarconst Oct Fut. Buy one lot of Nagarconst Oct Fut (lot size 2000) at 160/162 and cover it after taking a profit of Rs 4/5.
4. ICSA Oct Fut. Buy one lot of ICSA Oct Fut (lot size 2000) at 200/202 and take profit of Rs 5/6.
5. Punjlloyd Oct Fut. Buy one lot of Punjlloyd Oct Fut (lot size 1500) at 276/278 and take profit of Rs 8/10.

Recommended buy prices given above are little defensive in nature. They are not aggressive buy prices because there is need for taking caution today. US markets having closed in red and Asian markets at 9.25am 21 Oct 09 also in red, it is prudent to buy at little lower levels. It may so happen that these buy prices may not be met in trade today. But then that's fine. Day trading also means that on some days you need to sit out and watch the market.

I am yet not giving sell recommendations because as of now the market momentum is still up. So we will respect that, till it is confirmed that sell orders can be safe for day trading in futures. Until then it is better to stay on the buy side of bullish stocks, observing due precautions.

Day Trading Tips : Mahurat Trading

Be prepared for some surprises this Diwali Mahurat Trading. You will need to be careful of sharp volatility. I will be recommending October Futures of few scrips for trading today. But in case you find that your buy position remains open by the end of Mahurat Trading, then you can keep the position for next trading session. What I mean is that you need not panic with your buy positions taken today at my recommended price, in case you cannot exit in profit. Hold them as BTST positions. Here are your trading tips for today:-

Nagarconst. You can buy Nagarconst Oct Fut at 170.5 for taking quick profit of Rs 3/4. The next entry buy point will be 165/166 which you can keep holding for a gain of Rs 10/12.

HDIL. Buy HDIL Oct Fut at 378/382.5 for a target of 390. There is a strong possibility that you may not get the buy price in trade today, but then it is better to be safe than sorry especially while dealing with Futures.

LITL. Buy LITL Oct Fut at 526/530 for an upside profit of Rs 15/20. While going down you can again re-enter at 502/506 and keep it for 2/3 days. Of course you may decide to quit if such a position gives you profit of Rs 30/- plus.

ICSA. You can buy ISCA Oct Fut at 203/207 for a gain of Rs 8/10/-.

Century Textiles. Buy Centurytex Oct Fut at 511/514 for profit of Rs 15/20.

Relcapital. You can buy Relcapital Oct Fut between 907/915 for a profit of Rs 20/25.

Punjlloyd. Buy Punjloyd Oct Fut at 280/282 for profit of Rs 7/10.

Taking Stock : Day Trading Tips For 15 Oct 2009

Market today surprised most of us. From a moderately strong first half an hour, it petered out into a bearish slide. It gained some lost ground in the last hour to close flat for the day. Nifty lost 9 points and Sensex was 36 points down at close. Since the direction of the market was opposite to what was expected, day trading tips given in the last post for today did not do much. In fact the net business would show no profit no loss. Lets evaluate the day's accounts :-

LITL. Supposing you bought at the recommended buy price of 534, the scrip closed at526.7. If you have closed your position then the loss in this position with lot size as 638 should be around Rs 5000/- including brokerage (7.3x638=4657).

HDIL. If you bought HDIL Oct Fut at 378 then there is loss of about Rs 600, including brokerage, from this position as the scrip closed at 377.55 and lot size is 774 (0.45x774=348).

Punjlloyd. Presuming you bought one lot of Punjlloyd Oct Fut at 290 then you would have booked a loss of about Rs 1800 including brokerage. This is because the lot size is 1500 and the scrip closed at 389.

Nagarconst. In case you bought Oct Fut of Nagarconst at 175.5 and exited at 179.5 then with a lot size of 2000, you would have made a profit of about Rs 7700 including brokerage (179.5-174.5=4x2000=8000).

Net Profit= 7700-5000-600-1800= 300. In other words like a flat market closing the account book also closed flat with no profit no loss.

Day Trading Recommendations for 15 Oct 2009

With Asian markets trading in positive territory and US and European markets closed on strong bullish sentiment we are also expecting some decent up move for Indian markets today. In the back drop of this scenario , given below are some of the day trading picks for 15 Oct 2009:-

LITL. Buy Oct Fut of LITL at 534/535 for initial target of 553 and then finally 579.

HDIL. Buy Oct Fut of HDIL at 378/379 for initial target of 390 and then final target of 400.

Punjlloyd. By Oct Fut of Punjlloyd at 290/291 for initial target of 314 and finally 325.

Nagarconst. Buy Oct Fut of Nagarconst at 174/176 for initial target of 180, then 185 and finally at 190.

Happy Trading and Happy Diwali !!!