Saturday, March 28, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
24 Mar 2009
It just occurred to me that in this blog site I had started giving buy recommendations for retail investors in different stocks across various sectors from 25 Feb 2009 onwards. Today it is exactly one month since then, and that calls for some stock taking to evaluate the efficacy of my recommendations. For me it is basically an exercise to know whether I have been able to successfully guide the retail investor in an otherwise baffling market. For me it is judgement day today because as I plead my case before you, it is for you to pass the judgement. We shall evaluate post by post and in each post we shall investigate the performance of all scrips mentioned therein. Lets begin the proceedings!
Indian Markets Feb 2009 : Public Banking Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 25 Feb 2009 and gave out buying recommendations in five PSU banks as per details given below:-
- State Bank of India(SBIN). On 25 Feb 2009 SBIN closed at 1037 and I had recommended a buy at 920 for a gain of Rs 80/90. SBIN touched a low of 891.5 on 09 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 1085 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of nearly 10% in one month in this scrip.
- PNB. On 25 Feb 2009 PNB closed at 341.4 and I had recommended a buy at 338 for a gain of Rs 35. PNB touched a low of 286 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 382 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of more than 10% in one month in this scrip.
- Bank of Baroda. On 25 Feb 2009 Bank of Baroda closed at 216.9 and I had recommended a buy at 198 for a gain of Rs 25/30. Bank of Baroda touched a low of 180.2 on 09 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 239.4 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of more than 15% in one month in this scrip.
- Syndicate Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 Syndicate Bank closed at 51.25 and I had recommended a buy at 47 for booking quick profit. Syndicate Bank touched a low of 37.5 on 12 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 50.35 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of nearly 7% in one month in this scrip.
- IDBI. On 25 Feb 2009 IDBI closed at 49.4 and I had recommended a buy at 40. IDBI touched a low of 39.5 on 12 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 47.95 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of nearly 20% in one month in this scrip.
Indian Markets Feb 2009 : Pvt Banking Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 25 Feb 2009 and gave out buying recommendations in five Pvt Sector banks as per details given below:-
- ICICI Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 ICICI Bank closed at 340.6 and I had recommended a buy at 300 for a gain of Rs 50/60. ICICI Bank touched a low of 252.3 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 373.8 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of 20% in one month in this scrip.
- HDFC Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 HDFC Bank closed at 864.3 and I had recommended a buy at 800 for a gain of Rs 70/80. HDFC Bank touched a low of 774 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 974 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of 10% in one month in this scrip.
- Kotak Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 Kotak Bank closed at 253.3 and I had recommended a buy at 225. Kotak Bank touched a low of 208 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 290 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor could have locked in a profit of more than 28% in one month in this scrip.
- Axis Bank. Recommended buy target not reached.
- IndusInd Bank. Recommended buy target not reached.
Indian Markets Mar 2009 : IT Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 01 Mar 2009 and gave out buying recommendations for five IT companies. However recommended buy targets were not achieved.
Indian Markets Mar 2009 : Auto Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 02 Mar 2009 and gave out buying recommendations in five Auto companies as per details given below:-
- Tata Motors. On 02 Mar 2009 Tata Motors closed at 145.6 whereas I had recommended a buy at 145 and a sell at 200 to book profit. Tata Motors touched a low of 135.2 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 183.9 on 19 Mar 2009. A retail investor still stands to gain about 12 % from this trade even at the closing price of 162.4 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009.
- Maruti. Buy target not reached.
- M&M. On 02 Mar 2009 M&M closed at 319.9 while I had recommended a buy at 319 and a sell at 400. M&M touched a low of 306.6 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 392.5 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. A retail investor stands to gain about 17 % from this trade even at the closing price of 374.7 today.
- Hero Honda. Buy target not reached.
- TVS Motor. On 02 Mar 2009 TVS Motor closed at 19.9 whereas I had recommended a buy at 19.35 and a sell at 25 to book profits. However the scrip touched a low of 18.6 on 03 Mar 2009 and a high of 22.25 on 16 Mar 2009. A retail investor still doesn't stand to lose anything from this trade even at the closing price of 20.15 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009.
Blog posts published on 09 Mar 2009 were on stocks from Infrastructure , Realty and Cement Sectors viz IVRCL Infra, GMR Infra, DLF, Unitech, ACC and Ambuja Cement. Recommended buy targets for all these scrips have not been reached yet.
Finally it is for you to decide whether I have stood by the interest of retail investors or not. Buying levels for 26 scrips were given, out of which 15 scrips have still not reached the recommended buying levels. But all scrips which reached my recommended buying levels have given 10% to 20% profit in one month. No scrip has given any loss which is what satisfies me most because all said, today a retail investor is in no position to withstand the jolt of even one bad trade. Being conservative in buying approach is the name of the game. Hence 'no trade' is much better than a losing trade, since 'no trade' does not snatch away your hard earned money from you.
I have submitted my case before you. Now it is for you to pass the judgement!!
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Monday, March 16, 2009
In this journey of democratic India, I have had my share of experiences as a voter - bitter as well as sweet. In the process of evolving into a strong democratic nation we have to go through these bitter experiences. But after every bad experience if we as a nation can take lessons and improve upon our system then we are ultimate gainers. On the other hand if we simply shrug off the bad experiences as necessary evil then we stand the risk of moving backwards. Let me assure you that none of us will like that.
So what should be our action plan? What should we, as responsible citizens of the largest democracy, do to evolve faster as the strongest democratic nation on this planet. For that first we have to identify our bad experiences and then only can we find remedies for them. Here I have made an humble attempt to identify some bad experiences from my point of view, which are listed below:-
- There is very little to choose from as far as candidates of all parties in fray are concerned. I know this point has been debated often but it still needs our attention. We as voters are reminded again and again that we must firstly exercise our valuable votes and secondly we must do so in a judicious manner. But you tell me, if I don't find even a single suitable candidate in fray, what should I do? No Vote is not an answer because 65% of our population is not literate and hence can be swayed by unscrupulous candidates. Isn't it the prime responsibility of political parties to give tickets to only untainted and genuinely respectable candidates?
- There is a general tendency to employ unfair means and all parties are culprits for the same. In a country where 60% and more of the population live below poverty line and 86% live on less than Rs 120 per day, it is so very easy to employ unfair means. But will that not make us a week democratic nation in the long run? Are the political parties listening or do they think that they will not be effected by India becoming weak? Let us not live in fool's paradise and imagine that it doesn't effect us if we are in a political party. You don't have to look far to get an answer as to what happens to political parties in a weak democracy. Just look at Pakistan today!
Although the list of what is bad with our democracy can go on and on, but to my mind these are the two major malaise that Indian democracy is suffering from. We as a nation have to find remedies to these ailments and we do not have a choice. If not ballot then the other option is bullet. We have no choice but to put our faith in democracy and see to it that the roots grow stronger by the day.
What can be done to remove the ills in the process of electing a democratic government - this question is uppermost in the mind of every common man. Let me take the liberty to put forward some of my ideas below :-
- We have a literacy rate of 65% which is abysmally low for any strong democracy since democracy rests on the pillar of literacy. This is after 61 years of trying in every manner that we could. And if you look at China they have 98% literacy after they decided to give priority to education in 1985. It took just about the same time for all South East Asian nations to show the same result in literacy. What is wrong with us? We need to wake up and have Public Private Partnership to promote education and literacy to the remotest corner of our country. Lets not take shelter in the argument that we are geographically a vast country with a massive population and the task is difficult. China's example should silence such voices.
- 60% of our population lives in villages. Poverty is rampant. Here if I espouse Public Private Partnership in financially empowering our rural and semi rural areas, there will not be many takers. But I can see light at the end of the tunnel even though you may not agree now. We are headed towards a situation where Corporates have started taking serious note of C K Prahalad's arguments that there is "Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid". This happy situation has been galvanised by the global economic crisis. Just a couple of years back some corporates were mocking C K Prahalad saying that there is no fortune but "Mirage at the bottom of the Pyramid". Now we find the corporate world seriously planning to tap the bottom of the Pyramid, that is the poorer sections of our society. This is the current strategy of Indian Corporate houses for survival. Once that happens we will find Government joining hands to improve infrastructure in rural and semi rural areas, meaning more jobs will be created in those areas. From there on the virtuous cycle will take over and one day we will find a strong rural India as the backbone of a strong nation.
Here I am reminded of lines from a song called Imagine by John Lennon : " You may say I'm a dreamer..... but I'm not the only one".
Monday, March 9, 2009
Talking of pure infrastructure companies, one is left baffled to find that their charts are in shambles. Maybe its a reflection of the global contraction in 2009 that World Bank has predicted on 08 Mar 2009 in preparation of G-20 Finance Ministers' Meet on 14 Mar 2009. Developing countries are expected to be worst hit with a financing shortfall of $270 bn to $700 bn this year as per World Bank estimates. No wonder the charts are so bearish even after interest rate cuts and other sops Indian Govt has offered. So now is the time to pick buying opportunities in infrastructure companies albeit with due caution. We shall analyse buy levels of two important infrastructure companies.
Ivrcl Infra is safe till it does not close below 96 . However close below 96 will be catastrophic for IVRCL. Hence there is no buying sense at the present level of 110. The first buying opportunity for retail investors is at 53. However a close above 130 from present level will offer good buying opportunity, which seems quite unlikely at the moment.
Retail investors should not touch GMR infra at current level of 68 even with a 10 ft barge pole. The first real buying opportunity will present itself at 28. There may be some buying interest generated at its historic low of 40, but then its better to exercise restraint. However if you have a big appetite for taking risk then you may try your luck at 50.
Simply put there is lot of pain left in this sector. Don't be surprised if you find one fine morning that some realty company has folded up and closed shop. With credit crunch tightly in place and demand just not ready to lift its head, realty companies are not likely to hold on to many assets that they call their own today. And if the grapevine is to be believed then God save those realty companies who have yet to repay massive illegal funds raised from underworld goons.
If you are looking for investing in realty companies then do so with utmost care. We wouldn't relish another Satyam blowing up at our face. The charts of realty sector companies show extreme weakness and that is still an understatement.We shall have a closer look at two real estate companies and unearth buying opportunities for investors with a penchant for high risk ventures.
DLF is trading in the narrowest Bollinger band imaginable and is simply hanging on to a slender thread. If it closes below 134 then we will find this scrip hurtling towards disaster. In that case look for a buy at the level of 66/71.
Unitech in the recent past may have been one of the most professionally run real estate companies in India, but the present charts tell a different story. It seems as if the company can be listed as a fly-by-night-operator. It has made such a joke of valuations and fundamental analysis. Every logic has been thrown out of the window when we see the price the company is trading at presently. All this without an apparent scam or swindle !!! If conditions have to improve they have to improve from the present level of 24, otherwise buying opportunity will be available only at 10 for retail investors.
Let us now analyse buying opportunities for two most important scrips in Cement Sector. We need to be conservative in our approach while seeking buying opportunities in an essentially Bear market and that's exactly how we are going to proceed.
ACC is undeniably in a precarious position as far as Bollinger Bands are concerned. It is within a very narrow band with upper and lower limits as 575 and 530 respectively. From the close of 530.2 on 06 Mar 2009 it appears to be dangerously poised to crash downwards since any break from the constricted Bollinger band signals sharp and swift movement.So any buying before 390 will be utterly adventurous and fraught with risk. MACD and CCI are also signalling fall from the current level. I think we should respect these signals instead of burning our fingers.
Ambuja Cement is one step ahead of ACC. On 27 Feb 2009 it had already violated the constricted lower band of Bollinger, thereby indicating weakness. Though it has risen somewhat from that level but it still is weak to the core. Trade below 60 will plummet the scrip minimum to level of 50. As per Elliot Wave calculation there is buying opportunity at 54. So prudent thing will be to buy in the range of 50/54. This too will be short term buying and investors should look to realise profit of Rs 9/10 from level of 50/54.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Right platform or not, one thing is certain that so far there is no other equally effective alternative scheme that has been presented before us to hunt and showcase genuine talent. We may not agree with lot that is happening in the name of showcasing talent in these programmes. Plenty of gimmicks are resorted to by the producers of these reality shows which may offend the finer feelings of mind and soul. Not withstanding all that, one is compelled to acknowledge the fact that there is overall good being done to the society, maybe inadvertently. Lets take a deeper look at the pluses and minuses of the reality shows as platform to showcase one's talent:-
- The entertainment industry in India has found its moorings in this century. In other words it has come of age. Television is an essential component of entertainment industry. Television is also maturing in India . If we take a retrospective view, in the last century Television was languishing in India airing programmes connected to Indian Cinema only. But with the advent of Reality shows television viewing has taken a totally different dimension. Percentage increase of viewership has taken an exponential jump. With that increase in demand has come the logical increase in supply, making a virtuous cycle. The net result is the magnetic draw of big time money in television. One must admit that there are other genre of shows also which have contributed generously to the present happy situation, but place of Reality shows in this plot is undeniably there for all to acknowledge.
- With big time money comes professionalism and that brings more competent people to join force. The resultant is bigger, better and slick shows for audience to savour.
- Entertainment industry in general and Indian Cinema in particular benefits greatly from such Reality shows. Talent hunt in such a geographically vast nation is a tedious and daunting task to say the least. So before Reality shows came into existence music directors took the shortest route and worked with the same set of singers you could count on your little finger. And young singing talent in India went unsung (pun unintended). Not many talented youngsters will have such high motivational level as to leave everything and come to Mumbai to exhibit their talent, knowing fully well that they may not be able to fix up an audience with music directors for years. Reality shows have given such talented youngsters a popular platform to showcase their talent and draw attention of music directors of all hues.
- In effect such Reality shows are not only accomplishing the tedious task of ferreting out fresh talent, but also helping towards ushering in professionalism thereby enhancing quality in music industry. With high TRP comes better sponsorship. With better sponsorship comes bigger money which encourages talented youngsters to take music not as a pastime but as a vocation. That brings better quality, competitiveness and professionalism. This is just the beginning. There is enough talent in India to take the world by storm. Don't believe it? Just reflect on what A R Rahman and Sukhwinder Singh duo has done at the just concluded 81st Academy Awards.
- Popularity of such Reality shows is likely to make producers to experiment with modifications to this successful model. In future we may see Western Music talent being showcased successfully. Then will happen coup d'etat as Indians storm into the professional Pop and Rock bastion of the West. That will be the last frontier.
At times Reality shows may be accused of being biased in declaring the winners of these events. Or the producers may ignore blatant use of unfair means by participants to come up trumps. So in the end the viewers may be left wondering whether the winner was really the best of the lot. At times one may get emotionally upset to find glaring anomaly in declaration of winner in such shows. Before you lose heart and dump these entertaining programmes for good, take a dispassionate look at the following facts:-
- Just because the end result was rigged or unfair doesn't take an inch away from the wonderful young talent that has been showcased by these programmes.
- Who more than us Indians know for a fact that every aspect of our existence is coloured by unfair practices! There is unfair means being employed at every step that we take. Does that mean that we forsake everything that is unjust and unfair. Don't we still chug along? Then can we not take such practices in these shows in our stride. After all we should realise that ultimate winner of these shows is the Music industry, the entertainment industry along with the young talent and audience . So what if the producers, sponsors and maybe some cheats also win in the bargain.
- As conscientious audience we can voice our displeasure in abandon in various fora, in case we find something unpalatable in selection of winner. That will work wonders with the producers as they depend on us for TRP , which in turn drives sponsorship. Such Reality shows are in nascent stage of evolution in India and with audience opinion there is no doubt that many checks and balances will be put in place as we go along. That will ensure more transparency and better selection procedure for winners.
The need of the hour in India is to install foundations for professionalism in all activities that we undertake. Professionalism comes through finances which sponsors bring to the table. Talent is in abundance in India, be it music, sports, research, any performing or fine arts. Magic lies in hunting them and showcasing them in proper professional platforms. Reality shows like Sa Re Ga Ma, Indian Idol are doing just that. Keep the ball rolling! Watch out for the Indian Entertainment Industry in the next decade!!
Monday, March 2, 2009
A decisive close above 150 can easily take Tatamotors to 200, where some profit booking is expected. Once across 200 it is ready to sail to 310/315. However in case it breaks down below 130 then there is hell to pay. So the prudent thing will be to invest 50% at the present level and watch for events as they unfold. But below 130 one should be ready to exit from Tatamotors and look for a buy at 84.
Maruti has already shown strength from its low of 433. Now Maruti should be considered for buying once it corrects itself. 615 should be a decent level to pick up Maruti. However one should be ready to invest more in case Maruti slips down to 515. So investors should put in 50% at 615 and be on look out for the level of 515 to pump in another 50% money.
M&M has to decisively conquer 330 to qualify for a breakout. In case it does so then it will face resistance only at 400. So investors can risk buying into it at present level but should exit from it once it breaches 260. Below 260 M&M will make a dash for 165 and hence investors should judiciously invest at present level of 311. Not more than 50% money should be invested now.
In this gloom and doom, Hero Honda seems like a fairy tale. For the simple reason that the scrip is performing much above market, I have an apprehension for Hero Honda. It is trading at 930 which is near its historical high of 999. In fact it may again touch 999 but some how I am not comfortable with Hero Honda. I shall be more comfortable buying Hero Honda around 550/600.
TVS motor closed at 19.35 on 27 Feb 2009 and is a candidate fit for buying. Above 20 it will qualify as a breakout story and will easily show 25 to 27 in trade. However below 16 it is very weak and hence some caution should be exercised. Nonetheless one shouldn't miss taking TVS motor in his portfolio at present level, albeit in measured quantity. In case it breaches 16 then buy at 11.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Infosys can be bought with lot of caution at around 1100 to realise some quick profits by very smart and alert traders. But for an investor there is buying opportunity only at level of 900. Short term investors can enter at around 900 for a gain of Rs 200. Long term investors can invest 50% at this level. If Infosys breaches 900, one can safely look for a buy at 600.
Below 450 short term investors can look to enter TCS at 318 . At this level they will be able to garner profit of Rs 135. Long term investors can put 75% of their investment at level of 318.
If you are a brave hearted trader then you can buy Wipro at 180. But the caveat is that you must exit at the slightest weakness at 180. Wipro is ready for the level of 110 and it is at this level that it will present an excellent buying opportunity. Don't miss it.
Hcl Tech will present itself for buying between 72 and 76. Be on the look out for that level. In an intra-day move it may also touch 60 but that will just be providential for anyone to catch it at that point.
What can be said of Satyam! It has not only taken the wind out of the entire IT sector but has also has put a question mark on the credibility of Corporate India. One can consider buying Satyam only around 10. My guess is that it is most likely to touch its historically lowest price of Rs 6.3 or there-abouts.