Friday, May 13, 2016

Banking on Banks - Will They Deliver?

Market Direction
Indian markets may open down today. Reasons are as indicated below:-
  • Asian markets are trading in red.
  • SGX Nifty is down 50 points.
  • CPI inflation data has jumped to 5.39%
  • SEBI to introduce KYC norms for P-Notes
  • Dow closed flat yesterday
March Quarter Results
Quarterly results of three banks will be declared today. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the outcome.

Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank and Union Bank will be coming out with results of quarter ending March 2016. There is high expectation from these results. If the results are good then entire banking sector will get a boost in coming trading sessions.

Positives For Banking Sector
Results of banks declared today will indicate future direction for banking sector. Good results are expected for following reasons:-
  • Provisioning for NPAs in March quarter will be less, thereby increasing profit for banks. This I had already indicated in my earlier post. Check here.
  • Bank of Baroda should declare very good result since it had fully provisioned for NPAs in December quarter.
Banking stocks should also get fillip from following positive news :-
  • Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016 has been passed by both Houses of Parliament. This will immensely benefit banks in tackling their stressed assets.
  • RBI has tightened norms for aggregate lending to large corporate borrowers. This will lower the risk of defaults of large corporate borrowings being passed on to banking system These rules will apply from next financial year.
Call-to-Action
In my post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as indicated below:-
  1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Keep sell target at 206. Yesterday it closed at 188.3
  2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Initial target given was 166. If results are good then extend sell target to 180. Yesterday it closed at 158.4

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Another Manic Monday - Has Market Fluctuation Dampened Your Trading Spirit ?

Last Friday Nifty recovered from day low of 7789 and closed at 7850, giving some relief to market. Dangers still lurk.

Today indications from asian markets are bearish:-
  • Asian markets are in red.
  • Global oil is slightly down
  • SGX Nifty is down by 50 points.
  • Gold is up indicating poor condition for equities.
Call-to-Action
In my post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as given below:-
  1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Target 206. Friday it closed at 189.5
  2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Target 166. Friday it closed at 158.8
Bank of India Apr Futures was rolled over to May Futures. It was bought at 98 and revised target given was 99/100. Friday it closed at 92.5 

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Indian Markets Volatile - Nifty Levels to Watch

There is a saying among market participants  " Sell in May and Go Away" . Historically month of May has been a difficult month  for investors. In this month markets generally trend lower.

It is believed that in this month big players like Fund Managers go on summer vacation. This could be one reason for apprehension that month of May will not be profitable for investors.

Here mark my word "Investors", Yes this market adage may be true for investors, but for traders every month is an opportunity.

As traders in Stock Futures, what can we expect in May 2016? To find an answer to this question, let us analyse various probable situations. In this post we will discuss possible Nifty movements.



Situation # 1  Nifty moves higher from current market price (CMP)

  • For Nifty to move higher, it has to close above 8000. That will be the first sign.
  • If Nifty closes above 8000 in 2/3 days, then we can expect 8400 as target.
  • But if Nifty takes more time to reach 8000, then target will get restricted to 8100

 Situation # 2  Nifty moves sideways from current market price (CMP)

  • If Nifty has to move sideways, the range would be between 8100 and 7700.
  • Sign for sideways movement will appear when from a sudden bounce from CMP, Nifty drops with same ferocity to 7700.
  • From 7700, Nifty then takes longer time to reach back to 8100/8000. In such a situation, Nifty will finally move up if it takes support from 100 day SMA (Simple Moving Average).
  • But Nifty will go down if Nifty does not take support from 100 day SMA

Situation # 3  Nifty moves lower from current market price (CMP)
  • For move down, first sign will be if Nifty fails to close above 7950.
  • Nifty then closes below 7700.
  • Final signal for bear market to be established, Nifty has to close below 7500.
Take notice, trade safely!

Friday, April 29, 2016

Yen Rise Markets Tumble - Will There be Recovery?

Boooooooooom! It felt like one has been blown to smithereens. That was what Bank of Japan did to markets around the globe. But even Central Bank of Japan did not know markets will be smashed by their innocuous looking decision.

Bank of Japan yesterday took a decision of keeping the deposit rate unchanged at -1%.. Nothing disastrous should have happened since these rates were continuing since Feb 2016 and markets were used to it. Then why did global markets sell off so ferociously?

You must catch the details in this column : Japan Unsettles Global Markets - Havoc Spreads

Frankly speaking I did not foresee such devastating reaction to Bank of Japan decision to keep rates unchanged.  On the contrary I had expected Nifty to do very well in trade yesterday. Fed had not been hawkish and I did not think Bank of Japan did anything wrong to upset market. Our own local conditions had no fresh negative news to rattle Indian markets.

So in my last post I was very certain that Nifty will get past 8000 with ease, and may even reach 8100. How horribly wrong I was!

Yesterday Nifty lost massive 132 points and closed at 7847, doing exactly the opposite of what I had predicted

Today also indications from global markets are not good :-
  • Dow closed down by 210 points.
  • Asian markets are in negative territory
  • Global oil is slightly down
  • SGX Nifty is down by 37 points.
  • Gold is up which does not bode well for equities
Call-to-Action
In my post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as given below:-
  1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Target 206. Yesterday it closed at 192.2
  2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Target 166. Yesterday it closed at 160.8
Bank of India Apr Futures was rolled over to May Futures. It was bought at 98 and revised target given was 99/100. Yesterday it closed at 96.3

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Markets Poised to Perform Well on Expiry Day

Today is expiry day for April derivatives contracts. Indian markets should do well because of following positive news flow :-
  • US Fed kept its rates unchanged.
  • Dow closed up by 51 points.
  • Bank of Japan has kept it's interest rates unchanged.
  • Asian markets are mostly in green
  • Global oil is up
  • SGX Nifty is up by 32 points (Update at 9AM : SGX Nifty has suddenly turned negative by 16 points)
Yesterday headline for my morning post was "Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty". Indian markets did laze around in yesterday's trade. Nifty low was 7941 and high was 7991, merely 50 points of intraday variation.

Market Direction
Today Nifty should do well and cross 7800 with ease. I wouldn't be surprised if Nifty touches 8100.

Call-to-Action
Yesterday in my morning post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as given below:-
  1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Target 206
  2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Target 166
Bank of India Apr Futures buy position is held with us. This needs to be squared off today by all means, since it is expiry day. Take following action in trade today :-

Bankindia Apr Fut to be sold at 99/100. It was bought at 98 and initial target given was 120.
Update : Roll over Bankindia Apr Futures to May Futures.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 In Nifty

Yesterday in morning post I had remarked the following in this post :

"We need a positive close today for Nifty to close at 8000 in this expiry on Thursday."

Nifty had taken support near its support zone of 7800 as was suggested by me.Nifty closed up 107 points at 7962 yesterday. Will we then see Nifty reach 8000 in trade today as predicted? That will be an interesting thing to watch for in Nifty today.




Today Nifty should open down. As of publishing this post :
  • SGX Nifty is slightly up by 10 points
  • Asian markets are mixed
  • Oil in global market is up
  • Dow had closed mildly by 13 points
Market Direction
Nifty should open flat today. It will be difficult trade in Nifty since there will be volatility for reasons given below:-

  • Tomorrow is expiry day for April derivatives contracts in Indian markets.
  • Bank of Japan will give its monetary policy tomorrow.
  • US Fed will come out with it's own monetary stance on rate hike today
Call-to-Action

Buy following banking scrips of May Futures:-
  1. SBI May Fut buy at 199/200. Target 206
  2. Bankbaroda May Fut buy at 160/161. Target 166
Bank of India Apr Futures buy position is held with us. This needs to be squared off by all means, since tomorrow there is expiry of April contracts. Take following action in trade today :-

Bankindia Apr Fut to be sold at 99/100. It was bought at 98 and initial target given was 120.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Markets Soar Majestically - Did You Profit From It?


Nifty whizzed past 7900 as if it was no resistance at all. It speared through resistance of 7900 like knife through butter. Nifty ended 107 points up at 7962 in today's session.

In morning before markets opened, I gave a call for action in post titled "Markets Look Robust - Keep on Long Side".

Hope you heeded my advice to remain on buy side. Such a post title was specifically meant for those who were short in market. Today in trade, shorts got squeezed and bears hurried to cover their shorts.

Yesterday we had bought two bank scrips in May Futures as per my recommendations. Check this post.

Both buy positions of May Futures were listed in morning post for selling, with modified targets. Targets  given in this morning post were met in trade today.

 Let us calculate profit generated from these 2 May Futures contracts.

May Futures Contracts Bought on 25 Apr 2016, Sold Today ( Check post here )

Albk May Fut                    :  Lot size= 6000, BP = 58, SP = 60.5. 
                                               Holding Period = 01 trading session
                                               Profit = (60.5-58=2.5) X 6000 = Rs 15,000/-
                                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 59,000/-
                                               Return on Investment ( in 01 day) = 25% 

Bankbaroda May Fut       :  Lot size= 3100, BP = 159, SP = 162.5. 
                                                 Holding Period = 01 trading session
                                              Profit = (162.5-159=3.5) X 3100 = Rs 11,500/-
                                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 98,500/-
                                              Return on Investment ( in 01 day) = 11.5% 

Consider This Carefully Again

Realize the astounding power of  Stock Futures Trading in generating wealth. Do not keep yourself away from futures trading for any reason. Dump your inhibitions and jump on the bandwagon!!

 I will guide you from very basics, provided you seek my help. Feel free to air your opinion or seek  clarification through 'comments' section at bottom of the post.


Markets Look Robust - Keep on Long Side

Last trading session Nifty closed at 7855. We need a positive close today for Nifty to close at 8000 in this expiry on Thursday.

Today Nifty should open down. As of publishing this post :
  • SGX Nifty is down by 30 points
  • Asian markets are mixed
  • Oil is up
  • Dow had closed down by 26 points
Nifty should take support from its support zone of 7800. I had indicated this support area in my earlier post here. Relevant statement from this post is reproduced below :-

"Worst case scenario for Nifty is that it can drift down to 7800. There Nifty should find support in today's trade."

Call-to-Action

We have 2 open long positions of May Futures. In these scrips, take following actions in trade today :-
  1. Albk May Fut to be sold at 60/60.5. It was bought at 58 and initial target given was 65. It was bought yesterday.
  2. Bankbaroda May Fut to be sold at 162/163. It was bought at 159 and initial target given was 180. It was bought yesterday.
We have 2 open long positions of Apr Futures. In these scrips, take following actions in trade today :-
  1. Bankindia Apr Fut to be sold at 99/100. It was bought at 98 and initial target given was 120.
  2. Hexaware Apr Fut to be rolled over to May futures.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Vexing Day in Indian Markets - Profit Garnered Today


Before markets opened, I gave a call for action today morning in this post. Out of  4 buy positions of Apr Futures held, 3 long positions were listed in this post for selling, with modified targets.

Out of 3 long positions recommended for selling, 2 scrips met their target in trade today. Let us calculate profit generated from these 2 Apr Futures contracts.

April Futures Contracts Bought on 4 Apr 2016, Sold Today ( Check post here )

IDBI        :  Lot size= 8000, BP = 71, SP = 73. Holding Period = 11 trading sessions 
                    Profit = (73-71=2) X 8000 = Rs 16000/-
                    Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 1,02,000/-
                    Return on Investment ( in 11 days) = 17% 

April Futures Contracts Bought on 5 Apr 2016, Sold Today  ( Check post here )

UNIONBANK        :  Lot size= 3000, BP = 134, SP = 136. Holding Period = 12 trading sessions 
                                    Profit = (136-134=2) X 3000 = Rs 6000/-
                                    Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 76000/-
                                    Return on Investment ( in 12 days) = 8% 

After squaring off 2 long positions today, we are left with 2 more long positions in Apr Futures. Fresh targets for these remaining 2  Apr Futures positions will be given on tomorrow morning before markets open. So keep watching this space.

Buy Recommendations For May Futures Given Yesterday

I had recommended buy prices for 3 scrips in May Futures contract in this post Banks on Swing - Buy Good News And make Money

Out of these 3 recommendations, 2 scrips of May Futures could be bought at their recommended price. These are :-
  1. Albk bought at 58. It closed today at 59.2
  2. Bankbaroda bought at 159. It closed today at 159.75

Mood of Market - What to Plan For?

Nifty should open in slightly down today. I am tempted to announce so because, as of this moment :
  • SGX Nifty is down by 10 points
  • Asian markets is mostly down
  • Oil is slightly down
On last Friday Nifty closed  at 7899, down 12 points. Nifty is on a bullish run. But if Nifty moves further down, then it will find support at 7800. I had mentioned about this in my earlier post. Check it here. This is what I had mentioned in the post:-

"Worst case scenario for Nifty is that it can drift down to 7800. There Nifty should find support in today's trade."

"However if Nifty opens with a Gap-up above 7950, then it will be a very positive signal. Nifty will keep moving higher in such scenario. Further, if Nifty closes above 8000 today, then we can safely assume that it is headed to 8300."

Both the above mentioned conditions are still relevant for trade today. So keep these two points in mind while trading today.

Call-to-Action

We have 4 open long positions of Apr Futures. In these scrips, take following actions in trade today :-
  1. IDBI Apr Fut to be sold at 73/73.5 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 71 and initial target given was 80.
  2. BANKINDIA Apr Fut to be sold at 99/99.5 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 98 and initial target given was 120.
  3. UNIONBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 136/137 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 134 and initial target given was 160.
Do plan to take action as I had mentioned in my last evening post Banks on Swing - Buy God News and Make Money

Take a look at the current status of 4 buy positions of April Futures held with us :-

IDBI                : Bought 71,Close 72.75
BANKINDIA  : Bought 98,Close 97.7
UNIONBANK :Bought 134,Close 133.6
HEXAWARE  : Bought 268,Close 252.2

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Banks on Swing - Buy Good News And Make Money

Asset Quality Review of Banks by RBI
Asset Quality Review (AQR).
Herein lies the good news for Banks. Understand this factor of AQR as I explain in succeeding paragraphs. Once fully understood, you can take a decision whether you should seize this opportunity to make money or not.

Last year before third quarter results, RBI reviewed asset quality of banks and took out list of companies which are heavily indebted to banks.

RBI directed banks to make provision for this indebted amount in Q3 and Q4 results at 50-50 ratio respectively. This led to sharp decline in profits of banks after provisioning half the indebted amount in third quarter.

Now RBI has trimmed the list of indebted companies to be included in AQR. This means that banks will have to make less provisioning in their Q4 results, thereby increasing their bottom line. In other words, Q4 results of banks will be much above street expectations.

Bank scrips will get a boost with this news and move higher.

Technical View
You just read the fundamental good news. Now take into account the technical analysis of BankNifty.
  • Bank Nifty in charts opened with a gap-up at 16257 on 21Apr 2016(last Thursday) and continued moving up.
  • This gap-up opening provided a breakout move to BankNifty from upper band of Bollinger. This move has been maintained on Friday as well. Bank BankNifty closed at 16703.on Friday.
  • With the breakout move last Thursday, BankNifty confirmed the swing that was forming. Friday closing was an affirmative signal to the swing in BankNifty.
Take Action to Make Money
With such positive environment related for banks, it is time to take action. Make hay while the sun s.....!

Buy May Futures of following banks:-
  • Albk May Fut: Buy 57/58, Target 65
  • Bankbaroda May Fut : Buy 159/160, Target 180
  • Ktkbank May Fut : Buy 110/111, Target 125

Friday, April 22, 2016

Banks Buck Trend - Outshine Nifty Again

Banking sector was mercifully bullish in trade today, while Nifty was mildly volatile for better part of the day. Towards second half of session, Nifty drifted lower and finally closing at 7902, down 12 points.

Before markets opened, I gave a call for action in this post. Out of our 8 buy positions of Apr Futures held, 7 buy positions were listed in this post for selling, with modified targets.

Out of 7 buy positions recommended for selling, 4 scrips met their target in trade today. Let us calculate profit generated from these 4 Futures contracts.




April Futures Contracts Bought on 4 Apr 2016, Sold Today ( Check post here )

IOB          :  Lot size= 14000, BP = 30, SP = 32.
                    Holding Period = 11 trading sessions 
                    Profit = (32-30= 2) X 14000 = Rs 28000/-
                    Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 77000/-
                    Return on Investment ( in 11 days) = 36% 

PNB          : Lot size= 4000, BP = 87, SP = 91.
                    Holding Period = 11 trading sessions 
                    Profit = (91-87= 4) X 4000 = Rs 16000/-
                    Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 66000/-
                    Return on Investment ( in 11 days) = 24% 

SBI            : Lot size= 2000, BP = 195, SP = 200. 
                     Holding Period = 11 trading sessions 
                     Profit = (200-195= 5) X 2000 = Rs 10000/-
                     Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 70000/-
                     Return on Investment ( in 11 days) = 14% 


April Futures Contracts Bought on 5 Apr 2016, Sold Today  ( Check post here )

RPOWER                 : Lot size= 12000, BP = 50, SP = 53.5. 
                                    Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                                   Profit = (53.5-50= 3.5) X 12000 = Rs 42000/-
                                    Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 96000/-
                                   Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 43% 

After squaring off 4 long positions today, we are left with 4 more long positions in Apr Futures. Fresh targets for these remaining 4 Futures positions will be given on Monday morning before markets open. So keep watching this space..

                                                                                                                                  
Consider This Carefully

Realize the astounding power of  Stock Futures Trading in generating wealth. Do not keep yourself away from futures trading for any reason. Dump your inhibitions and jump on the bandwagon!!

 I will guide you from very basics, provided you seek my help. Feel free to air your opinion or seek  clarification through comments section at bottom of the post.

Exit Strategy for April Futures - Action Station

Yesterday Nifty closed slightly in red at 7912 and Dow Jones in US closed deeply in red , down 113 points at 17982.

Global markets are not supportive. Asian markets are in red and SGX Nifty is down by 15 points, as of publishing this post. So Indian markets should open flat with a slight negative bias.

Worst case scenario for Nifty is that it can drift down to 7800. There Nifty should find support in today's trade.

However if Nifty opens with a Gap-up above 7950, then it will be a very positive signal. Nifty will keep moving higher in such scenario. Further, if Nifty closes above 8000 today, then we can safely assume that it is headed to 8300.

Call-to-Action

We have 8 open long positions of Apr Futures. In these scrips, take following actions in trade today :-
  1. RPOWER Apr Fut: Sell at 53/53.5 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 50 and initial target given was 54. But if it opens with a strong gap up, then hold this position for target beyond 54.
  2. IOB Apr Fut to be sold at 32/32.5 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 30 and initial target given was 36.
  3. IDBI Apr Fut to be sold at 74/74.5 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 71 and initial target given was 80.
  4. PNB Apr Fut to be sold at 90/91 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 87 and initial target given was 100.
  5. SBI Apr Fut to be sold at 199/200 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 195 and initial target given was 220.
  6. BANKINDIA Apr Fut to be sold at 99.5/100 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 98 and initial target given was 120.
  7. UNIONBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 136/137 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 134 and initial target given was 160.
Take a look at the current status of 8 buy positions of April Futures held with us :-

RPOWER :Bought 50,Close 52.25
IOB : Bought 30,Close 31.6
IDBI: Bought 71,Close 72.55
PNB: Bought 87,Close 88.7
SBI: Bought 195,Close 194.3
BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 97.4
UNIONBANK:Bought 134,Close 132.4
HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 253.6

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Banks Make Strong Comeback - How Much Have You Profited?


Banking sector was extremely bullish in trade today. Nifty opened with a gap up but could not sustain its position for long. Through the entire session, Nifty drifted lower, finally closing slightly in red at 7912.

Today morning, before markets opened, I gave a call for action in this post. Out of our 16 buy positions of Apr Futures held, 11 buy positions were listed in this post for selling, with modified targets.

Out of 11 buy positions recommended for selling, 8 scrips met their target in trade today. Let us calculate profit generated from these 8 Futures contracts.


April Futures Contracts Bought on 4 Apr 2016, Sold Today ( Check post here )

KTKBANK        :  Lot size= 4000, BP = 104, SP = 113. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                               Profit = (113-104=9) X 4000 = Rs 36000/-
                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 67000/-
                               Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 54% 

ALBK                 :  Lot size= 6000, BP = 57, SP = 61. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                               Profit = (61-57=4) X 6000 = Rs 24000/-
                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 69000/-
                               Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 35% 

UCOBANK         : Lot size= 10000, BP = 40, SP = 41.5. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                               Profit = (41.5-40=1.5) X 10000 = Rs 15000/-
                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 76000/-
                               Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 20% 

BANKBARODA : Lot size= 3100, BP = 150, SP = 156. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                                Profit = (156-150=6) X 3100 = Rs 18600/-
                                Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 93000/-
                                Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 20% 


April Futures Contracts Bought on 5 Apr 2016, Sold Today  ( Check post here )

ANDHRABANK        :  Lot size= 8000, BP = 53, SP = 57. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (57-53=4) X 8000 = Rs 32000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 76000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 42% 

SYNDIBANK              :  Lot size= 5000, BP = 67, SP = 71. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (71-67=4) X 5000 = Rs 20000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 60000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 33% 

CANBANK                  : Lot size= 2000, BP = 194, SP = 203. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (203-194=9) X 2000 = Rs 18000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 74000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 24% 

ORIENTBANK           : Lot size= 3000, BP = 94, SP = 98. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (98-94=4) X 3000 = Rs 12000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 56000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 21% 

After squaring off 8 long positions today, we are left with 8 more long positions in Apr Futures. Fresh targets for these remaining 8 Futures positions will be given in this blog tomorrow morning before markets open. So keep close watch.


More importantly, you would have realized the awesome power of Futures Trading in generating wealth. If you are keeping yourself away from futures trading for any reason, dump your inhibitions and jump on the bandwagon. I will guide you from the very basics, if you seek my help. Rest is your choice. Feel free to comment.


Green is Color of Day - Decisive Action In Markets Today

Yesterday Nifty closed absolutely flat at 7914 despite benign global markets and supportive oil situation.

Global markets are in fine fettle. Dow Jones closed 42 points higher at 18096. Oil is trading in green. Asian markets are also in green and SGX Nifty is up by 32 points. So Indian markets should open in green today.

In trade on Monday there was appearance of "Hanging Man" in Nifty chart. Hanging Man is a candlestick pattern which denotes bearish mood. Luckily in yesterday's trade, bearish angle of Hanging Man was negotiated by Nifty. This gives bullish slant to Indian markets.

Trading activities in today's session is going to be very crucial. Movement of Nifty in trade today will determine it's target.

If Nifty opens with a Gap-up above yesterday's high and maintains it's up-move throughout the session, then we will have a target for Nifty in range of 8300. If not, Nifty target could get restricted to 8000 level.

Call-to-Action

We have open long positions of Apr Futures Do take careful note of the following actions that you need to take in trade today :-
  1. RPOWER Apr Fut to be sold at 53.5/54 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 50 and initial target given was 54. But if it opens with a strong gap up, then hold this position for target beyond 54.
  2. IOB Apr Fut to be sold at 32.5/33 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 30 and initial target given was 36.
  3. Albk Apr Fut to be sold at 60.5/61 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 57 and initial target given was 67.
  4. IDBI Apr Fut to be sold at 74.5/75 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 71 and initial target given was 80.
  5. UCOBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 41.5/42 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 40 and initial target given was 45.
  6. CANBK Apr Fut to be sold at 202/203 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 194 and initial target given was 220.
  7. KTKBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 112/113 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 104 and initial target given was 120.
  8. SYNDIBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 70.5/71 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 67 and initial target given was 85.
  9. ORIENTBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 97.5/98 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 94 and initial target given was 110.
  10. ANDHRABANK Apr Fut to be sold at 56.5/57 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 53 and initial target given was 65.
  11. BANKBARODA Apr Fut to be sold at 155/156 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 150 and initial target given was 170.
Current status of our 16 long positions in Apr Futures is given below:-

RPOWER :Bought 50,Close 52.45
IOB : Bought 30,Close 31.55
ALBK:Bought 57,Close 58.75
IDBI: Bought 71,Close 72.2
PNB: Bought 87,Close 84.6
SBI: Bought 195,Close 188
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Close 40.15
CANBK: Bought 194,Close 197.5
KTKBANK: Bought 104,Close 109.5
SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Close 69.05
BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 94.95
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Close 93.85
UNIONBANK:Bought134,Close127.6
ANDHRABANK:Bought53,Close 55
BANKBARODA:Buy150,Close152.7
HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 256.8


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Hilarious Slip Up - Forgot Indian Markets are Closed Today

In my eagerness to give market updates to my audience before Indian markets opened for trading, I published a post forecasting market opening in green. Little did I realize that today is Mahavir Jayanti and Markets are closed!! That is called " Goof-up-Royale"

I have pulled out this ultra-hilarious and erroneous post from my blog site. Those who have got the link and are not able to open it, do not worry. It is deliberate action on my part to vacate the link and not some technical glitch.

Those who had opened the link while it was live on net, my apologies. But I guess those who could read the post while it was live would at least have had a good laugh. That is a good way to begin the day - isn't it?

Anyway, I will publish here some relevant portions from this snuffed- out post for your consumption. Here we go :-

Yesterday Nifty closed up by 64 points despite grim global situation precipitated by oil market crash. This I had predicted in my last post.

And if you have gone through my last post you would remember that though I had predicted oil plunging and global equity markets going down with it, I had categorically told you to buy Indian market on dip. My exact words before market opening were:  "SGX Nifty is down by about 30 points. So expect some weakness in Indian markets during early trades. Global factors notwithstanding, you should  be long on Indian markets on dips."

That is exactly what happened in trade yesterday. Nifty opened at 7908 and quickly fell down to 7843. Then slowly through the day it gained 64 points to close at 7915, near its day high of 7921.

Enjoy your holiday today and Happy Mahavir Jayanti !

Monday, April 18, 2016

No Deal In Doha - Where Does That Leave Indian Markets?


From global markets there is negative news. Doha Summit on Production Freeze of crude oil has failed on Sunday. This will cause a crash in oil prices for the time being and the contagion will spread to global equity markets. International Gold prices will rise as investors will run for cover to safe haven in Gold.

Must Read more on this here :-

World Waits with Bated Breath - Doha Summit Outcome
How will this Sunday Be- Black or Grey
Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

SGX Nifty is down by about 30 points. So expect some weakness in Indian markets during early trades. Global factors notwithstanding, you should  be long on Indian markets on dips. Why am I being so optimistic for Indian markets? Here's why:-
  • Traders itching to have a go after long weekend (4 days lay off)
  • Monsoon predicted to be above average in 2016 (106% of average 89 cm)
  • March CPI inflation came at 4.83%, moving down from Feb data of 5.26%
  • Feb IIP data moved up to (+)2% from (-)1.5% in Jan, and after contracting for past 3 months.
What more do you want from  internal environment to trade on the long side? So put on your riding shoes and ride the bull. 

Moreover, RBI Governor has indicated that he is ready for more rate cuts if there is good monsoon and inflation figures point lower. He revealed this to MarketWatch (Wall Street Magazine) economic correspondent in US at the sidelines of Spring Meetings of IMF and World Bank. You can catch more of that here. More monsoon is guaranteed, which will bring inflation further down, and with that will come a rate cut. This must be music to the ears of bulls, especially in banking sector.

Now let me give you the current status of our 16 long positions of Apr Futures which we are holding as per my recommendations.

RPOWER :Bought 50,Close 52.1
IOB : Bought 30,Close 30.6
ALBK:Bought 57,Close 56.85
IDBI: Bought 71,Close 70.1
PNB: Bought 87,Close 84.9
SBI: Bought 195,Close 192.4
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Close 39.5
CANBK: Bought 194,Close 196
KTKBANK: Bought 104,Close 106.6
SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Close 68.35
BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 94.9
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Close 92.75
UNIONBANK:Bought134,Close131.6
ANDHRABANK:Bought53,Close 53.75
BANKBARODA:Buy150,Close153.1
HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 256.1

Saturday, April 16, 2016

One Eyed King in Land of Blind - Says RBI Governor

RBI Governor is presently in US for Spring Meetings of  IMF and World Bank. Speaking to MarketWatch correspondent on sidelines of the Meet, +Raghuram Rajan  was candid and modest in admitting that there is lot of work yet to be done for India to claim the epithet of 'bright spot of global economy'.

Raghuram Rajan, on being quizzed how he has managed to steer India to being the bright spot of global economy, admitted modestly and realistically that India is not such a bright spot since there is still a long way to go. World including IMF is giving this badge to India because it is like "One-eyed King in land of blind". That tells the whole story of state of Global economy.

Raghuram Rajan hinted that he is ready for more cuts in repo rate, provided there is good monsoon and inflation cools down further. This is splendid news for banking sector

Met department has now made forecast of above average monsoon this year. And icing on cake is that March CPI inflation numbers have come out better than expected at 4.83 

Now Raghuram Rajan has to act and cut interest rates further, as equity market participants had earlier expected. This expectation was mentioned in my post RBI Cuts Rate - But Was It Enough? 

By his own admission RBI Governor will be cutting rates soon. This will be very positive boost to Indian markets, with banks leading the charge. Only dampening effect will come from global markets as crude prices are expected to fall after Doha Meet on Production Freeze on Sunday. Check it here.

But we shall overcome!. Bright spot of global economy has to perform after all.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Convicted Ex-CMD Indian Bank Gets Bail - No Deterrence to Stop Siphoning Our Money?

Last week M Gopalkrishnan, former CMD and Chairman Indian Bank, was convicted and sentenced to two years RI in a case of cheating the bank. Investigators found that Gopalkrishnan defrauded the bank Rs 5.5 crores 20 years back. Gopalkrishnan was also slapped with fine of Rs 8000/- .Few points which need our attention are as under:-
  1. Rs 5.5 crores in 1990 means Rs 33 crores as of today, if we use official cost inflation index. That means, for defrauding the bank of Rs 33 crores he has been penalized Rs 8000/-. Rest of the money he and his family can enjoy splurging.
  2. Gopalkrishnan was known to be liberal with granting loans worth Rs 1300/- crores during his tenure. There are about 20 cases registered against him. In a related case he was convicted in 2013 for defrauding the bank of Rs  6.5 crores..
  3. This ex-CMD would sanction huge loans without adequate collaterals and later waive off part of the loan.
  4. This case to culminate into sentence, it has taken 18 years. And after the sentence, this 80 year old banker gets bail and walks away free. He will spend next 20 years in exercising his judicial options of appealing to higher courts. By then nature will take charge.
Now the questions that should bother all of us are the following :-
  1. Why single out Indian Bank and its former CMD? This strategy of looting the tax payer has been employed by all banks - evident from huge NPAs  in their books. In fact if we take a peek at the books of bigger banks like SBI, PNB  et al, crime of Gopalkrishnan will pale into insignificance. The story of each case of NPA is exactly the same - huge loan disbursed to an entity with paltry secured collaterals to cover it. Then after obvious default, taking haircuts in the name of restructuring of loans. No wonder we have NPAs amounting to Rs 4 lakh crores in the books of PSU banks. Another Rs 4 lakh crores are stressed assets which will be declared NPA shortly. So it is actually Rs 8 lakh crores of bad loans..Money that is rightfully ours is sunk as bad loans - Crying Shame!!
  2. If after 20 years judgement comes from  lower courts, then it will take another 20 years for appeals in higher courts. In other words these white collared criminals cannot be put away in jails ever. And they know it!. All they pay as penalty is Rs 8000/- for looting Rs 33 crores. No wonder every bank MD  is resorting to this very simple plan of making crores. It must be an  SOP to be handed over to successors.
  3. From time to time banks' books are cleaned up of NPA by provisioning equivalent amount under  garb of recapitalizing the banks. This recapitalizing process of banks with our money will be set into motion shortly by RBI. Point is, if that is the way things have been functioning and will continue to function in the largest democracy of the world, then so be it. Question is - why should you waste more tax payers' money by way of  investigation, court proceedings and establishment cost just to recover Rs 8000/- against loss to state of Rs 33 crores? Stop being hypocritical, stop all investigations into NPAs!!!!!

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Nifty Rallies Beyond 7800 - Celebratory Mood in Market

Nifty will open with a gap up - that was my prognosis before markets opened today. That is exactly what Nifty did - opened with 70 points gap up.

My concern was that Nifty should maintain gap up prices during the entire day. Fortunately Nifty opened strongly and kept going from strength to strength.


Finally Nifty closed at 7850, gaining 141 points.

Before markets opened for trading, I had posted Urgent action is required to be taken today . I had given sell targets for three open buy positions of Apr Futures. These scrips achieved their respective targets today in trade. Details are given below :-

Tatapower : Bought at 64. Tgt given 69/70. Sold at 70. Lot size - 8000 
                     Profit = (70-64= 6) X 8000 = Rs 48,000/-

Jindalstel :   Bought at 62.5. Tgt given 70/71. Sold at 70. Lot size - 7000 
                     Profit = (70-62.5= 7.5) X 7000 = Rs 52,500/-

However given sell target of Rpower was missed by 5 paisa in trade today.. Rpower :Bought at 50. Tgt given 53/54. Day High 52.95 

Markets have closed on a very optimistic note. On Thursday and Friday markets are closed for Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and Ram Navami respectively. So next trading session will be on next Monday ie 18 Apr 2016. Till then enjoy the profits and long weekend !!

Urgent Action Required in Trade on 13 Apr 2016

Overnight US markets ended very strongly up, gathering +165 points.

Taking cue from US markets, Asian markets are presently trading in green, SGX Nifty is also up by 57 points as of publishing this post.

This means we can safely expect Nifty to open with a gap up today..We only hope that  gap up opening in prices are sustained during the entire day.

Urgent Action Required to be Taken Today.
Following buy positions of Apr Futures need to be squared off today when markets open:-

  1. Tatapower. Bought at 64. Initial target given was 70. Sell today at 69/70.
  2. Jindalstel. Bought at 62.5. Initial target given was 72. Sell today at 70/71
  3. Rpower. Bought at 50. Initial target given was 54. Sell today at 53/54

Talking about our 15 remaining Futures positions, here is the latest update:-


IOB : Bought 30,Close 30.15
ALBK:Bought 57,Close 55.7
IDBI: Bought 71,Close 69.45
PNB: Bought 87,Close 83.7
SBI: Bought 195,Close 188.2
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Close 39
CANBK: Bought 194,Close 189.8
KTKBANK: Bought 104,Close 104.8
SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Close 68.15
BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 94.15
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Close 90
UNIONBANK:Bought134,Close129.2
ANDHRABANK:Bought53,Close 52.9
HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 256.2
BANKBARODA:Buy150,Close149.6

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Worried About Market? - Nifty Looks Good For 7800

Before Indian markets opened today, I had advised you to take urgent action to sell Indiacem April Futures position. Check out the post here.

Heeding my advice, one could sell Indiacem Apr Futures at 93. It  was bought at 87. That gave a profit of Rs 6.0 per share. One lot Indiacem Futures consists of 6000 shares.

Hence Profit made from one lot of Indicem Apr Fut = 6X6000 = Rs 36000/- 

Markets have been very quiet for better part of today. Hardly any directional movement worth the name was noticed in indices before 2PM. A sense of worry prevails amongst traders, what with US markets closing in negative in last session.

My view is that stocks are pausing after a stellar show in last session. I am saying so since Nifty looks good to touch 7800 in 2/3 days. 

Today Nifty closed at 7709, up by 37.5 points from yesterday's close. However the cause for our concern is that the banking sector did not rally in trade today. Let us hope tomorrow brings cheer to this sector.



Action Required to be Taken In Market Today

Indian markets spurred into action in the second half of last trading session. It was welcome relief to see green shoots sprouting out.

Let me first give the current status of 19 futures position that we are holding as per my recommendations in this post.

TATAPOWER Bought at 62.5, Closed at 67.85
JINDALSTEL : Bought at 64, Closed at 66.25
INDIACEM: Bought 87, Closed 92.35
RPOWER: Bought 50, Closed 51.6
IOB : Bought 30,Closed 30.75
ALBK: Bought 57,Closed 56.65
IDBI: Bought 71,Closed 68.05
PNB: Bought 87,Closed 83.55
SBI: Bought 195,Closed 189.1
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Closed 39.1
CANBK: Bought 194,Closed 188
KTKBANK: Bought 104,Closed 105.2
SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Closed 68.65
BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Closed 93.15
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Closed 90

UNIONBANK: Bought 134,Closed 130.1
ANDHRABANK : Bought at 53, Closed at 53.45
HEXAWARE :  Bought at 268, Closed at 252.2
BANKBARODA : Bought at 150, Closed at 150

Action to be Taken Urgently Today in Trade
Indiacem Apr Futures was bought at 87 and the target given was 95 in this post. In last trading session Indiacem closed at 92.35 which means it is giving us substantial profit. Hence my recommendation is to square off this position at the opening price today.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Indian Markets Make Fascinating Bull Charge in Late Trade


Oh what a spectacular bull run in second half of trade! It was a secular bull charge, making almost every sector green in its wake.

Indian markets were flat to negative till 1 PM. And then, as if sparked by some tremendous news, got lifted magically. Nifty gained 116 points by close.

Not just Indian markets, Asian markets also got lifted and European markets are a sea of green as of now. Dow Jones Futures is indicating that US markets will open in firm green territory.

So what is cheering the entire global market so strongly? Dollar Index is slightly down, and Oil is slightly up as of publishing this post. I do not know of anything extraordinary that has happened or is expected to happen in global scenario which warrants this kind of bull run across all equity markets around the world.

If you know the reason of such positive action in markets, please feel free to share your thoughts with all of us. You can put your thoughts in the comments section of this post for the benefit of all of us. I will really appreciate that.


Sunday, April 10, 2016

Return Our Money Now - Track Down Stressed Assets of Banks

Banks have indiscriminately given loans to high and mighty without proper due diligence and adequate collaterals. These  loans have become stressed assets in the books of banks and has created this abnormal situation when Govt is considering recapitalizing the banks.

This means that more tax payers' money is being proposed to be pumped into banks. For that Bank Board Bureau has been constituted which I had mentioned in my previous post.

Today total stressed assets of PSU banks stand at Rs 4 lakh crores. But it is estimated that if we also consider loans that face the risk of being declared NPAs going forward, then the total value of stressed assets of banks will stand at Rs 8 lakh crores. What a royal mess!!

This is our hard earned money which the banks are giving away to robbers masquerading as corporate entities. It is time we demand our money back into bank coffers. Instead of doing that, financial wizards like RBI Gov are devising ways to recapitalize banks. This means that more tax payers' money will be garnered and given to banks so that they can facilitate more robbers to rob us. What irony!

Before recapitalizing the banks we want the list of willful defaulters to be made public. But our RBI Gov insists that we should not name and shame these defaulting entities. Mr Raghuram Rajan, if you are not even willing to name these defaulters who have looted the Indian economy, then one wonders what action you will take against them!

We want government to track down stressed assets of banks, seize all assets of defaulters including their personal assets, and return our money back into the vaults of banks. For doing that, if you need to create a separate Public Asset Recovery Company by an Act of Parliament, do so. We simply need our money back now!