Monday, April 18, 2016

No Deal In Doha - Where Does That Leave Indian Markets?


From global markets there is negative news. Doha Summit on Production Freeze of crude oil has failed on Sunday. This will cause a crash in oil prices for the time being and the contagion will spread to global equity markets. International Gold prices will rise as investors will run for cover to safe haven in Gold.

Must Read more on this here :-

World Waits with Bated Breath - Doha Summit Outcome
How will this Sunday Be- Black or Grey
Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

SGX Nifty is down by about 30 points. So expect some weakness in Indian markets during early trades. Global factors notwithstanding, you should  be long on Indian markets on dips. Why am I being so optimistic for Indian markets? Here's why:-
  • Traders itching to have a go after long weekend (4 days lay off)
  • Monsoon predicted to be above average in 2016 (106% of average 89 cm)
  • March CPI inflation came at 4.83%, moving down from Feb data of 5.26%
  • Feb IIP data moved up to (+)2% from (-)1.5% in Jan, and after contracting for past 3 months.
What more do you want from  internal environment to trade on the long side? So put on your riding shoes and ride the bull. 

Moreover, RBI Governor has indicated that he is ready for more rate cuts if there is good monsoon and inflation figures point lower. He revealed this to MarketWatch (Wall Street Magazine) economic correspondent in US at the sidelines of Spring Meetings of IMF and World Bank. You can catch more of that here. More monsoon is guaranteed, which will bring inflation further down, and with that will come a rate cut. This must be music to the ears of bulls, especially in banking sector.

Now let me give you the current status of our 16 long positions of Apr Futures which we are holding as per my recommendations.

RPOWER :Bought 50,Close 52.1
IOB : Bought 30,Close 30.6
ALBK:Bought 57,Close 56.85
IDBI: Bought 71,Close 70.1
PNB: Bought 87,Close 84.9
SBI: Bought 195,Close 192.4
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Close 39.5
CANBK: Bought 194,Close 196
KTKBANK: Bought 104,Close 106.6
SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Close 68.35
BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 94.9
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Close 92.75
UNIONBANK:Bought134,Close131.6
ANDHRABANK:Bought53,Close 53.75
BANKBARODA:Buy150,Close153.1
HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 256.1