TAKING STOCK - BUY RECOMMENDATIONS OF FEB/MAR 2009

Archana Debanath
24 Mar 2009

It just occurred to me that in this blog site I had started giving buy recommendations for retail investors in different stocks across various sectors from 25 Feb 2009 onwards. Today it is exactly one month since then, and that calls for some stock taking to evaluate the efficacy of my recommendations. For me it is basically an exercise to know whether I have been able to successfully guide the retail investor in an otherwise baffling market. For me it is judgement day today because as I plead my case before you, it is for you to pass the judgement. We shall evaluate post by post and in each post we shall investigate the performance of all scrips mentioned therein. Lets begin the proceedings!

Indian Markets Feb 2009 : Public Banking Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 25 Feb 2009 and gave out buying recommendations in five PSU banks as per details given below:-

1. State Bank of India(SBIN). On 25 Feb 2009 SBIN closed at 1037 and I had recommended a buy at 920 for a gain of Rs 80/90. SBIN touched a low of 891.5 on 09 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 1085 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of nearly 10% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
2. PNB. On 25 Feb 2009 PNB closed at 341.4 and I had recommended a buy at 338 for a gain of Rs 35. PNB touched a low of 286 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 382 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of more than 10% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
3. Bank of Baroda. On 25 Feb 2009 Bank of Baroda closed at 216.9 and I had recommended a buy at 198 for a gain of Rs 25/30. Bank of Baroda touched a low of 180.2 on 09 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 239.4 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of more than 15% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
4. Syndicate Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 Syndicate Bank closed at 51.25 and I had recommended a buy at 47 for booking quick profit. Syndicate Bank touched a low of 37.5 on 12 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 50.35 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of nearly 7% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
5. IDBI. On 25 Feb 2009 IDBI closed at 49.4 and I had recommended a buy at 40. IDBI touched a low of 39.5 on 12 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 47.95 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of nearly 20% in one month in this scrip.

Indian Markets Feb 2009 : Pvt Banking Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 25 Feb 2009 and gave out buying recommendations in five Pvt Sector banks as per details given below:-

1. ICICI Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 ICICI Bank closed at 340.6 and I had recommended a buy at 300 for a gain of Rs 50/60. ICICI Bank touched a low of 252.3 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 373.8 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of 20% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
2. HDFC Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 HDFC Bank closed at 864.3 and I had recommended a buy at 800 for a gain of Rs 70/80. HDFC Bank touched a low of 774 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 974 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor would have booked a profit of 10% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
3. Kotak Bank. On 25 Feb 2009 Kotak Bank closed at 253.3 and I had recommended a buy at 225. Kotak Bank touched a low of 208 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 290 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. Going by my recommendations an investor could have locked in a profit of more than 28% in one month in this scrip.
   
   
4. Axis Bank. Recommended buy target not reached.
   
   
5. IndusInd Bank. Recommended buy target not reached.

Indian Markets Mar 2009 : IT Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 01 Mar 2009 and gave out buying recommendations for five IT companies. However recommended buy targets were not achieved.

Indian Markets Mar 2009 : Auto Sector - Buying Opportunities
This post was published on 02 Mar 2009 and gave out buying recommendations in five Auto companies as per details given below:-

1. Tata Motors. On 02 Mar 2009 Tata Motors closed at 145.6 whereas I had recommended a buy at 145 and a sell at 200 to book profit. Tata Motors touched a low of 135.2 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 183.9 on 19 Mar 2009. A retail investor still stands to gain about 12 % from this trade even at the closing price of 162.4 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009.
   
   
2. Maruti. Buy target not reached.
   
   
3. M&M. On 02 Mar 2009 M&M closed at 319.9 while I had recommended a buy at 319 and a sell at 400. M&M touched a low of 306.6 on 06 Mar 2009 and recorded a high of 392.5 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009. A retail investor stands to gain about 17 % from this trade even at the closing price of 374.7 today.
   
   
4. Hero Honda. Buy target not reached.
   
   
5. TVS Motor. On 02 Mar 2009 TVS Motor closed at 19.9 whereas I had recommended a buy at 19.35 and a sell at 25 to book profits. However the scrip touched a low of 18.6 on 03 Mar 2009 and a high of 22.25 on 16 Mar 2009. A retail investor still doesn't stand to lose anything from this trade even at the closing price of 20.15 today i.e. 24 Mar 2009.

Blog posts published on 09 Mar 2009 were on stocks from Infrastructure , Realty and Cement Sectors viz IVRCL Infra, GMR Infra, DLF, Unitech, ACC and Ambuja Cement. Recommended buy targets for all these scrips have not been reached yet.

Finally it is for you to decide whether I have stood by the interest of retail investors or not. Buying levels for 26 scrips were given, out of which 15 scrips have still not reached the recommended buying levels. But all scrips which reached my recommended buying levels have given 10% to 20% profit in one month. No scrip has given any loss which is what satisfies me most because all said, today a retail investor is in no position to withstand the jolt of even one bad trade. Being conservative in buying approach is the name of the game. Hence 'no trade' is much better than a losing trade, since 'no trade' does not snatch away your hard earned money from you.

I have submitted my case before you. Now it is for you to pass the judgement!!