Dow Jones Bleeds - Will Nifty Arrest The Global Downtrend?

Dow Jones in its last trading session made no attempt to recover from low and kept its steady southwards journey in trade yesterday. It looked almost like a surrender of the bulls to bear hug. That does not augur well for global markets. What spooked US markets which resulted in Dow closing 120 points in red on 28 Oct 2009? Nothing out of the way. Just the same old stuff, same old conditions, same old story. It seems global investors are pulling out money from equity markets and parking it in Dollars. Hence increased demand for dollar and that's how you can see the Greenback rise against all currencies except yen. But wasn't it just the opposite situation last week? There was unambiguous opinion across the planet that dollar was losing its sheen and was likely to depreciate against all major currencies. Well news flows as per market behaviour and not the other way round.

The long and short of all this is that Asian markets are trading deep in red today ie 29 Oct 2009. That sends shivers down the collective spine of bulls in India. With bulls quivering, bears will naturally seize control. That is how the situation would seem to any of us for today's trade. Moreover its expiry day for derivatives today and hence there will be lot of nervousness on the part of traders. However it seems to me that Indian markets will arrest the downward trend in global equities by showing the way up, starting today. News will follow later to justify the move and that is why I can't put a finger to any reason at the moment. All I can say is that the Elliot Wave calculations suggest an upward move from here in Nifty and Sensex. Remember we still have an upside Nifty target to reach at 5280 before this year ends or maybe just at the beginning of New Year.

Whatever be the case it will be nice if you can pick up any or some of the shares suggested below:-

• Punjlloyd buy at 180/185 for a target of 225 in short term.
• Canara Bank buy at 324/327 for a target of 357 in short term.
• DCHL buy at 45/47 for a target of 62 in short term.
• Dena Bank buy at 61/63 for target of 70 in short term.
• Dr Reddy buy at 950 for target of 1050 in two weeks.
• Voltas buy at 141/144 for target of 168 in two weeks
• Crompton Greaves buy between 340 and 350 for a target of 425 in short term.
• IDBI buy at 113/115 for a target of 128 in short term.
• IOB buy at 113/114 for a target of 126 in short term.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 3 ( X-5 )

In this post we continue analysis of Mr X's portfolio with few more financial institutions. With this I guess we would have covered more or less all important banking scrips. Mr X sure has the right choice of banking scrips.

YES BANK
Holding 100 shares @ 138. CMP-168.5
6 mnth tgt- 220; 1 yr tgt- 310
Yes bank may decline to level of 120. It may so happen that in current run up it may rise to around 180. But it will be prudent to exit with profit at current level and take fresh position at 120 level.

CANARA BANK
Holding 102 shares @ 202. CMP- 281.8
6 mnth tgt-360 ; 1 yr tgt- 460
Canara Bank has corrected up to 38.2% but it may visit 220 before resuming its upwards journey again. Hence you should take your profit and re-enter the scrip at 220.

SYNDICATE BANK
Holding 100 shares @ 85. CMP- 80.5
6 mnth tgt- 105; 1 yr tgt- 145
Syndicate bank has corrected 50% but it is likely to touch 70 before moving up. Be ready to buy 100 shares more at 70 and sell all your holdings at 1 year's target of 145.

VIJAYA BANK
Holding 100 shares @ 53. CMP- 42.1
6 mnth tgt- 70; 1 yr tgt-83
Vijaya Bank has moved up after correcting 38.2% but it can still slide down to 35. Look for that chance to buy 100 additional shares at 35. After that wait for 1 year to sell 200 shares at 83.

IDBI
Holding 200 shares @ 76. CMP- 106.5
6 mnth tgt- 135; 1 yr tgt- 165
IDBI can move down to 78. However you can hold your position till 1 year's target of 165, because IDBI is in very strong up-move formation. In case the scrip moves down then you can buy 200 shares more at 80.

IDFC
Holding 400 shares @ 100. CMP- 134.8
6 mnth tgt- 180; 1yr tgt- 250
IDFC has yet to correct sufficiently and therefore it may come down to 93. You may like to book your profits at current market price. You may re-enter once the scrip reaches 93 level.