Dow Jones Bleeds - Will Nifty Arrest The Global Downtrend?

Dow Jones in its last trading session made no attempt to recover from low and kept its steady southwards journey in trade yesterday. It looked almost like a surrender of the bulls to bear hug. That does not augur well for global markets. What spooked US markets which resulted in Dow closing 120 points in red on 28 Oct 2009? Nothing out of the way. Just the same old stuff, same old conditions, same old story. It seems global investors are pulling out money from equity markets and parking it in Dollars. Hence increased demand for dollar and that's how you can see the Greenback rise against all currencies except yen. But wasn't it just the opposite situation last week? There was unambiguous opinion across the planet that dollar was losing its sheen and was likely to depreciate against all major currencies. Well news flows as per market behaviour and not the other way round.

The long and short of all this is that Asian markets are trading deep in red today ie 29 Oct 2009. That sends shivers down the collective spine of bulls in India. With bulls quivering, bears will naturally seize control. That is how the situation would seem to any of us for today's trade. Moreover its expiry day for derivatives today and hence there will be lot of nervousness on the part of traders. However it seems to me that Indian markets will arrest the downward trend in global equities by showing the way up, starting today. News will follow later to justify the move and that is why I can't put a finger to any reason at the moment. All I can say is that the Elliot Wave calculations suggest an upward move from here in Nifty and Sensex. Remember we still have an upside Nifty target to reach at 5280 before this year ends or maybe just at the beginning of New Year.

Whatever be the case it will be nice if you can pick up any or some of the shares suggested below:-

• Punjlloyd buy at 180/185 for a target of 225 in short term.
• Canara Bank buy at 324/327 for a target of 357 in short term.
• DCHL buy at 45/47 for a target of 62 in short term.
• Dena Bank buy at 61/63 for target of 70 in short term.
• Dr Reddy buy at 950 for target of 1050 in two weeks.
• Voltas buy at 141/144 for target of 168 in two weeks
• Crompton Greaves buy between 340 and 350 for a target of 425 in short term.
• IDBI buy at 113/115 for a target of 128 in short term.
• IOB buy at 113/114 for a target of 126 in short term.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 3 ( X-8 )

In this series of Portfolio Analysis for Mr X , we have come to the end of the road with this tranche. Today we have analysed some assorted stocks which covers the complete portfolio of Mr X. I hope you have enjoyed reading the complete portfolio of Mr X as much as I have, analysing it. Here's last of the wilds for your eyes only!!

SESA GOA

Holding 100 shares at average price of 206. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 242.1.

6 mnth tgt - 300; 1 yr tgt - 470

Sesagoa seems to be in belligerent mood and is constantly trying to notch higher scales. But it has moved up too fast too soon. It is likely to touch level of 155. So take your profit now at current level and wait for correction. Pick up the scrip again at 160 and wait for a year to reap benefits from the scrip at 470.

BEL

Holding 10 shares at an average price of 1202. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 1371.

6 mnth tgt - 1800; 1 yr tgt - 2500

BEL will fall to sub 1300 initially and maybe jump to 1400. But that will be short lived and you may see the scrip trading at 1000 level in short term. Be conservative and take home your profit at current level. Re-enter the scrip at 1000 level and wait for one year to sell the same at 2500 level.

DLF

Holding 50 shares at average price of 525. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 398.6

6 mnth tgt - 700; 1 yr tgt - 900

DLF may correct from here but do not be disheartened. Hold the scrip for one year target of 900. If you can keep the share for a longer term of two years then you can see the target of 1200 also.

OMAXE

Holding 60 shares at average price of 310. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 123.2

6 mnth tgt - 180; 1 yr tgt - 240

Omaxe is again a hold for you. But you should add shares in your portfolio at 110 or even at current market price. You should sell this bundle of 120 shares at its one year's target of 240.

PARSVNATH

Holding 60 shares at average price of 300. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 119.2

6 mnth tgt - 195; 1 yr tgt - 240

Parsvnath may correct to 80 so keep adding this scrip in small packets till level of 80. Then hold the scrip for its one year's target of 240.

MUNDRA PORT

Holding 45 shares at average price of 440. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 534.

6 mnth tgt - 800; 1 yr tgt - 1100

Mundra Port may correct to 400 level. So book your profit now and again re-enter at 475 and keep adding to your position till 400. Then you can hold your position till target of 1100 is achieved.

ONGC

Holding 52 shares at average price of 850. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 1177.

6 mnth tgt - 1350; 1 yr tgt - 1900

ONGC is likely to correct to 975. So it will be best to book your profit now. Re-enter at 1000 level and hold till the target of 1900.

THERMAX

Holding 40 shares at average price of 598. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 478.1.

6mnth tgt - 650; 1 yr tgt - 890

Thermax will correct to 350 level. But do not worry. Just add 40 shares at 350 level for target of 890.

VOLTAMP

Holding 20 shares at average price of 690. Closing price on 11 Sep 09 was 840.

6 mnth tgt - 1150; 1 yr tgt - 1300

Voltamp is moving sideways in a tight band between 700 and 900. With market expected to correct in near future it would be advisable to book profit at current level. You can re-enter the scrip above 900 for a target of 1100. Otherwise wait for correction and enter the scrip at 600 level for a target of 1300.

VOLTAS

Holding 100 shares at average price of 122. Closed at 147 on 11 Sep 09.

6 mnth tgt - 195; 1 yr tgt - 300

Voltas is looking for excuse to fall in near term and hence would qualify for sell. It may fall to 90 level and so book your profit at current level. Pick up the stock again at around 90 for a target of 195 at least.