Sunday, September 6, 2009


In this post we continue analysis of Mr X's portfolio with few more financial institutions. With this I guess we would have covered more or less all important banking scrips. Mr X sure has the right choice of banking scrips.

Holding 100 shares @ 138. CMP-168.5
6 mnth tgt- 220; 1 yr tgt- 310
Yes bank may decline to level of 120. It may so happen that in current run up it may rise to around 180. But it will be prudent to exit with profit at current level and take fresh position at 120 level.

Holding 102 shares @ 202. CMP- 281.8
6 mnth tgt-360 ; 1 yr tgt- 460
Canara Bank has corrected up to 38.2% but it may visit 220 before resuming its upwards journey again. Hence you should take your profit and re-enter the scrip at 220.

Holding 100 shares @ 85. CMP- 80.5
6 mnth tgt- 105; 1 yr tgt- 145
Syndicate bank has corrected 50% but it is likely to touch 70 before moving up. Be ready to buy 100 shares more at 70 and sell all your holdings at 1 year's target of 145.

Holding 100 shares @ 53. CMP- 42.1
6 mnth tgt- 70; 1 yr tgt-83
Vijaya Bank has moved up after correcting 38.2% but it can still slide down to 35. Look for that chance to buy 100 additional shares at 35. After that wait for 1 year to sell 200 shares at 83.

Holding 200 shares @ 76. CMP- 106.5
6 mnth tgt- 135; 1 yr tgt- 165
IDBI can move down to 78. However you can hold your position till 1 year's target of 165, because IDBI is in very strong up-move formation. In case the scrip moves down then you can buy 200 shares more at 80.

Holding 400 shares @ 100. CMP- 134.8
6 mnth tgt- 180; 1yr tgt- 250
IDFC has yet to correct sufficiently and therefore it may come down to 93. You may like to book your profits at current market price. You may re-enter once the scrip reaches 93 level.

Saturday, September 5, 2009


Like photons of light, the next packet of Mr X's portfolio analysis is here to focus on Banking stocks. During the course of analysis one singular thought that goes through mind is that the banking stocks are likely to dip sharply in very short term. Notwithstanding that, one sees a bright future for the banking sector in medium to long term. Just take a look.

Holding 78 shares @ 1340. CMP- 1762.45
6 mnth tgt- 2300, 1 yr tgt- 3200
SBIN has corrected 38.2% so far and has yet to cover its gap at 1380. So it would be no surprise if it gravitates to 1380 in near term. Since you are sitting on profit it would be advisable to quit your position at current market price. Enter SBIN again at 1400 level for a period of 6 months in order to maximise your profits.

Holding 50 shares @ 327. CMP- 427.3
6 mnth tgt- 550, 1 yr tgt- 800
Bank of Baroda has corrected just about 38.2% but has not covered its gap at 350. In days ahead it may correct to 330. Here you may like to book your profit and again re-enter once the scrip visits the level of 350. Then you would be well advised to keep the stock for a period of 6 months.

Holding 71 shares @ 395. CMP- 681.35
6 mnth tgt- 850; 1 yr tgt- 1200
PNB has not corrected sufficiently enough and may do so now. Take your profit home at CMP, since it may correct to 500 level. After that you may like to trade for different targets given above.

Holding 1925 shares @ 82. CMP- 93.15
6 mnth tgt- 110; 1 yr tgt- 140
Allahabad Bank has just about corrected to 38.2% , but still not covered its gap at 61. It will therefore be no big surprise to find the scrip tumbling to 60 in coming days. My advice would be to book profit in your position and wait for 60 level to re-enter. You can then begin your trading for different targets given above.

Holding 176 shares@ 880. CMP- 743.9
6 mnth tgt- 950, 1 yr tgt- 1400
There is an uncovered gap at 579 and ICICI Bank has not corrected enough to touch even 38.2%This is a tricky situation where analysis says that ICICI bank should correct to 520 in near term and you are presently in loss. Of course you can simply wait for six months to liquidate your position at 950. The other way round is to sell 56 shares at current market price and take a chance by booking this loss. In case the scrip does not correct then your holding of 120 shares will cover the loss you would have made in 56 shares by exiting at 950. But if ICICI does correct as I am foreseeing then you will have a chance to enter at 520 level, thereby giving you an opportunity to bring down your buy price in the scrip.

Friday, September 4, 2009


The next packet from Mr X's portfolio will be examined and I hope some of the capital goods companies discussed here will find their foot-marks in your portfolio too. Without much ado lets unveil the analysis for whatever it is worth.

Holding 10 shares @ 1109. CMP- 729.2
1 mnth tgt- 900, 6 mnth tgt- 1200, 1 yr tgt- 1400
ABB has corrected 38.2% and may come down to 580 in days ahead. Not to worry. Stay invested till the scrip reaches its 6 mnth tgt.

Holding 100 shares @ 2000. CMP- 1515
6 mnth tgt- 1950, 1 yr tgt- 2800
L&T has not yet corrected sufficiently to qualify for its journey in the 2nd leg of bull run. Hence in near future one has to be cautious on the buy side. It can move down swiftly to 1000 level which will give it 50% correction. It will then be able to cover a gap it created at 1000. You may buy 100 more shares at 1000 level and hold them till L&T reaches its 6 month target of 1950.

Holding 120 shares @ 1770. CMP-2197
6 mnth tgt- 2800, 1 yr tgt- 3900
BHEL has not corrected and is a likely candidate to do so in coming days. Its 50% correction should take it tumbling to 1700 level. It is at this level that it has left a gap uncovered and hence may hurry to cover it at 1765. You may be well off to sell your shares at current market price and pick it again at your original buy price. After that you can off load at its 6 month target price of 2800

Holding 100 shares @ 22. CMP- 288.8
1 mnth tgt- 400, 6 mnth tgt- 500, 1yr tgt- 595
Havells has completed its 50% correction act and is well poised to take higher trajectory for 2nd leg of bull run. Since you are holding it at 22 you should book your profit at 500 and again re-enter after major correction. In doing so your holding of Havells will be free of cost and you would have profited, if you buy it back at a price lower by more than Rs 22. After that you should look to exit at 1 year target of 595.

Crompton Greaves
Holding 100 shares @ 250. CMP- 310
6 mnth tgt- 420, 1 yr tgt- 520
Crompton has not corrected itself in any real earnest and hence may do so now. Its propensity to correct may take it to as low as 180 where it will then be covering a gap it left behind while going on a meteoric rise. You could exit your profitable position at current market price and come into cash so that you can re-enter at 200 level. You should then hold your position for 6 month's target and trade serious dips. In this process of trading major dips you should finally exit at 1 year's target of 520.

Thursday, September 3, 2009


The second tranche of Mr X's portfolio is here. This packet may compel some to take a deep look at few IT companies and derive an outlook for IT sector as a whole. Take a peep!

Holding 20 shares @ 2118, CMP -2165
In this run up Infosys has not corrected to the extent that it should have. Therefore in near future there is a distinct possibility of Infosys correcting to a level of 1700 or so. Such correction is essential for the scrip to attain stability for its long term growth trajectory. You may consider emptying your kitty of Infosys at level of 2300 or thereabouts. After that wait for a major correction in the scrip to re-enter and hold it for 1 yr's tgt of 3300.

Holding 100 shares @ 425, CMP - 120.8
1 mnth tgt 145; 6 mnth tgt- 185; 1 yr tgt- 320
Buy 200 shares of Satyam at current level and hold for 1 year target of 320. In this fashion you would be able to exit your position with profit since you would have averaged the scrip to a buy price of 220. To further bring down your buy price you may toy with the idea of trading additional 300 shares at target levels indicated above.

Holding 200 shares @ 250, CMP - 309.1
You are sitting on profit in a scrip which hasn't corrected yet. In fact the whole IT pack has yet to correct its rise. Hence I am of the opinion that you should liquidate your position in HCL tech at 310 and wait for a major correction before re-entering. Level of 200 will be a decent correction level to buy. After buying the correction you should hold the scrip for one year's target of 450.

Holding 600 shares @ 188, CMP - 84.35
1 mnth tgt - 114, 6 mnth tgt- 135, 1 yr tgt - 172
Buy 600 additional shares of 3iinfotech so that your average Buy Price drops down to 118. Then you can exit all your positions at 6 month's target and trade subsequent corrections; or simply wait for 1 year's target of 172 for off-loading 3iinfotech.

Holding 100 shares @ 327, CMP -311.9
6 mnth tgt - 400, 1 yr tgt- 460
Mastek may correct to 260 in near term. In case you get a chance in coming trading sessions to exit your positions at 335 then it would be quite comfortable. If not, then wait for 6 month's target to take home some honourable profit.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009


In this Portfolio Analysis I m constrained to use the name as Mr X, for which I hope you will pardon me. Mr X's portfolio will take quite a few posts to complete since the list of shares in the portfolio is quite long. So I will be breaking the portfolio into small packets and posting the analysis in tranches. And another thing - those scrips already analysed in earlier posts will not contain the reasoning portion of analysis. For that do refer the earlier posts for more information. The first pie of Mr X's portfolio is presented below :-

Holding 305 shares @ 2300. CMP- 1971
1 mnth tgt- 2360, 6mnth tgt - 2900, 1 yr tgt - 4000
Sell 50 shares at 2360 . Pick it up again at around 2000 and keep it for 6 mnth's tgt of 2900. In this manner you may trade these 50 shares till it reaches 1 yr's tgt of 4000. Rest of your holdings you can book profit at 4000.

Holding 450 shares @ 490. CMP- 276.1
1 mnth tgt- 350, 6 mnth tgt - 500, 1 yr tgt- 600, 2 yr tgt- 810
You can sell 250 shares at 530 and trade these at major dips. Otherwise simply hold all your shares for 1 yr tgt of 600.

Holding 104 shares @ 300. CMP- 160.4
1 mnth tgt- 200, 6 mnth tgt- 280, 1 yr tgt- 330, 2 yr tgt-480
Rpower has already completed 50% correction of its 1st leg of bull run. Hold all your shares for 1 yr tgt of 330.

Holding 15 shares. CMP- 892.4
6 mnth tgt- 1420, 1 yr tgt- 2100, 2 yr tgt - 2900
Book your initial profit at 1420 and then start trading strong dips as per your capacity.

Holding 136 shares @ 850. CMP- 534.6
TCS may correct to 380 in near term and will take about 1 yr to reach 850. Its all time high is 694.5 so I should believe that the buy price may actually be 650 instead of 850. Not withstanding that, I would recommend that you should buy 136 shares more in case TCS falls down to 400.