Friday, September 4, 2009

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 3 ( X-3)

The next packet from Mr X's portfolio will be examined and I hope some of the capital goods companies discussed here will find their foot-marks in your portfolio too. Without much ado lets unveil the analysis for whatever it is worth.

ABB
Holding 10 shares @ 1109. CMP- 729.2
1 mnth tgt- 900, 6 mnth tgt- 1200, 1 yr tgt- 1400
ABB has corrected 38.2% and may come down to 580 in days ahead. Not to worry. Stay invested till the scrip reaches its 6 mnth tgt.

L&T
Holding 100 shares @ 2000. CMP- 1515
6 mnth tgt- 1950, 1 yr tgt- 2800
L&T has not yet corrected sufficiently to qualify for its journey in the 2nd leg of bull run. Hence in near future one has to be cautious on the buy side. It can move down swiftly to 1000 level which will give it 50% correction. It will then be able to cover a gap it created at 1000. You may buy 100 more shares at 1000 level and hold them till L&T reaches its 6 month target of 1950.

BHEL
Holding 120 shares @ 1770. CMP-2197
6 mnth tgt- 2800, 1 yr tgt- 3900
BHEL has not corrected and is a likely candidate to do so in coming days. Its 50% correction should take it tumbling to 1700 level. It is at this level that it has left a gap uncovered and hence may hurry to cover it at 1765. You may be well off to sell your shares at current market price and pick it again at your original buy price. After that you can off load at its 6 month target price of 2800

Havells
Holding 100 shares @ 22. CMP- 288.8
1 mnth tgt- 400, 6 mnth tgt- 500, 1yr tgt- 595
Havells has completed its 50% correction act and is well poised to take higher trajectory for 2nd leg of bull run. Since you are holding it at 22 you should book your profit at 500 and again re-enter after major correction. In doing so your holding of Havells will be free of cost and you would have profited, if you buy it back at a price lower by more than Rs 22. After that you should look to exit at 1 year target of 595.

Crompton Greaves
Holding 100 shares @ 250. CMP- 310
6 mnth tgt- 420, 1 yr tgt- 520
Crompton has not corrected itself in any real earnest and hence may do so now. Its propensity to correct may take it to as low as 180 where it will then be covering a gap it left behind while going on a meteoric rise. You could exit your profitable position at current market price and come into cash so that you can re-enter at 200 level. You should then hold your position for 6 month's target and trade serious dips. In this process of trading major dips you should finally exit at 1 year's target of 520.