Wednesday, September 30, 2009

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 8 (Jalal Basha)

Here we have a very unique portfolio of Mr Jalal Basha which comprises of some rare gems and is also well diversified. I hope it will serve some of you to select a few scrips from the portfolio to add to your own. Lets begin the analysis then.

3iinfotech
Holding 250 shares @ Rs 88.5. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 83.25
6 mnth tgt- 135, 1 yr tgt- 172
You should plan to exit the scrip with no profit no loss. You should re- enter the scrip at 70 and keep accumulating till level of 60.
Alembic Ltd
Holding 250 shares @ Rs 49 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 52.3
6 mnth tgt- 72, 1 yr tgt- 100
Alembic can run up to 65 so keep holding till at least 62. Exit there and be ready to pick up the scrip again between 45 and 50. You can than look forward to sell your holdings at one year's target of 100.
Apollo Tyres
Holding 100 shares @ Rs 39.5 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 46.2
6 mnth tgt- 55, 1 yr tgt- 85
Book your profit in Apollo Tyres at current market price. Wait for correction and buy it again at 30 level for 1 year's target.
Crompton Greaves
Holding 15 shares @ Rs 300. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 311.7
6 mnth tgt- 440, 1 yr tgt- 560
Play safe and exit your position from Crompton Greaves at current market price. Close below 300 will be disastrous for the scrip. It can find support at 260 level but at that point if market shows consistent weakness it may even revisit 180 level. So its better not to take any chance since you are still not in loss by exiting at CMP. You can start buying from 220 till 180 and then hold the scrip for one year's target of 560.
Ess Dee Aluminium
Holding 60 shares @ Rs 359 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 352.8
6 mnth tgt-550 , 1 yr tgt- 700
Ess Dee Aluminium can touch 385 in current run-up or even higher. But on the flip side it may even drop down to 250 during market correction. But if you are not hard pressed for capital then you can cling on to it for one year's target of 700.
Exide Industries
Holding 100 shares @ Rs 88.5 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 89.9
1 yr tgt- 160
You should consider off loading this scrip at current market price. You may like to pick it up again at level of 65 for its one year target of 160.
KSK Energy Ventures
Holding 100 shares @ Rs 210. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 203.4
Frankly speaking there can be explosive move either way in this stock. Below 195 it can tumble to a zone between 110 to 140. Above 210 it can race to 280. Since the probability to move southwards is more, exiting the stock at CMP will be more prudent play.
Mahindra Lifespace
Holding 50 shares @ Rs 373 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 385.1
6 mnth tgt- 500, 1 yr tgt- 650, 2 yr tgt- 900
Mahindra Lifespace can move up to 400 but you may be better off to exit the scrip while still in green. You will then have the option to re- enter at 225/250.
Nava Bharat Venture
Holding 15 shares @ Rs 433 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 380.7
1 yr tgt- 850
Though Nava Bharat Venture can correct a great deal, but in my opinion you should keep holding the scrip and plan to double your holding at 260/280. Then you can profitably exit your complete position at one year's target of 850.
NHPC
Holding 785 shares @ Rs 36 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 34.6
1 yr tgt- 42
NHPC can fall down to 22. Keep accumulating from the level of 30 right up to 22. By averaging so you can plan to exit from the scrip in one year's time with a decent profit.
Noida Toll
Holding 300 shares @ Rs 44.3 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 41.9
6 mnth tgt- 60, 1 yr tgt- 85
Noida Toll should correct from here up to 32. Double your position at around 32 level and hold for one year til the target of 85 is achieved.
Praj Industries
Holding 150 shares @ Rs 107 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 102.1
1 yr tgt- 180
Praj Industries can witness serious selling below 96 which may take it all the way down to the zone between 60 and 70. Plan to accumulate the scrip at that level and book profit at its one year target of 180, which may even stretch up to 200.
Tinplate
Holding 200 shares @ Rs 69 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 55.25
1 yr tgt- 145
Keep picking up the scrip from 50 right up to 45 , and just in case it falls further down to 40 do add some more to your portfolio. You can then plan to sell your complete holding at one year's target of 145.