Friday, July 9, 2010

IMF Forecast For 2010: India GDP Upgraded

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now corroborated what I have been maintaining for quite some time. IMF has upgraded India's GDP forecast of year 2010 from 8.8% to 9.4%. And on the other hand, IMF has indicated that US poses the greatest threat to global recovery. In fact as per IMF it is India and China and some other Asian economies which are supposed to lift the growth prospects in the world and therefore it has raised the world GDP prospects for 2010 from 4.2% to 4.5%. However it has lowered its growth estimates for Euro zone, Canada, US, Japan, and emerging economies.

If we consider expected growth rate of different economies of the world, India ranks second behind China. According to IMF, while India's GDP is expected to grow at the rate of 9.4%, China's GDP is fore estimated to grow at 10.5% for year 2010. This is wonderful news for Indian economy, and should lift the global investors' confidence and investment sentiments towards India.

I had already fore casted in my post dated 17 Jan 2010 titled " Stimulus Induced Growth - Is It global Recovery On Steroids" that US will witness a double dip depression while Indian markets will correct but rebound aggressively to surpass their all time highs in a year's time. Now IMF forecast mirrors my sentiments. With India you can also see other emerging economies to do well, provided they are not heavily dependent on exports to US.

Moving away from growth rates, do keep a look out for textile counters for long trades in Indian markets today ie 9th July 2010. This is because the textile sector will benefit from the announcement from China that yuan will be allowed to appreciate more aggressively.