Friday, July 30, 2010

Stock Futures Trading Made Ezy - HCL Tech

Stock Futures trading has been thoroughly rewarding for my subscribers. In the last 7 trading sessions my subscribers have made profit in the range of Rs 25,000/- to Rs 30,000/- with maximum investment of Rs 75,000/-. This gets translated into 33% to 40% return on investment in just 7 trading sessions.

This has been possible mainly due to high leverage available with trading stock futures. Also I have now modified my trading strategy where at any one time I give only one stock futures recommendation. This means that firstly subscribers do not have to put in any effort to choose from multiple recommendations, and secondly I can direct all my energies to guide them through the entire single trade. In this fashion their investment at any one time can never be more than Rs 50,000/- to Rs 80,000/-. Profit generated is through rotation of principal and leverage. In this manner we are also able to keep greed under check.

Now let us take the example of trade in HCL Tech Aug Futures. Since I am stock futures trading Guru at , day before yesterday at 1.13PM my subscribers had bought this scrip between 378/380 as per my recommendation. By 2.25 PM all my subscribers sold the lot at 382 on my call, since I felt we will get to again buy the scrip at lower level. In this trade they made profit ranging from Rs 2700/- to Rs 3700/-.

Again day before yesterday at 3.14 PM I gave a call to buy HCL Tech at 375, which the subscribers did. We kept the position open overnight. Yesterday by 9.05 AM all subscribers had sold the lot between 390/395. Since the lot size is 1000, they could make a windfall gain ranging from Rs 15,000/- to Rs 20,000/-. This has been achieved only by holding the position overnight (BTST if you may call it!).

I had recommended buy of HCL Tech day before yesterday because it was a strong buy both fundamentally and technically. Company results were expected to be good. And technically the scrip was just ripe for swing trading. All I had to do was to pin point the buy level at the support of the swing. Rest is now history. That's how simple stock futures trading really is.

Have you ever realized what a wonderful platform Stockezy has provided to retail investors to make money in Indian stock market? There is simply no reason for retail investors not to seize this fabulous opportunity of making money in stock futures at a very affordable subscription price. You are most likely to make triple the subscription amount in your very first trade. Don't believe me, ask my subscribers. I think every retail investor should avail of this money making opportunity provided by Stockezy.

Given below is the link to actual trading. Here I owe an explanation to my readers for putting them through some inconvenience in reading the comments for trade in HCL Tech. Actually the Opinion page was opened for trading Patni Computers. But then suddenly HCL Tech came down to our buy level and there was no time to open a new Opinion page for HCL Tech. So in order that my subscribers do not miss this opportunity I gave the buy call of HCL Tech in this already opened Patni page. Later this page was also used for trading Patni Computers August Futures after squaring off positon in HCL Tech. Anyway, here's the link :- .

Stock Futures Trading Made Ezy - ABB

Stock Futures trading requires very little effort to make reasonably good money, in case one shows patience and waits for price to come to calculated buy levels before entering trade. This gives leeway to exit trade in technical bounce even when the general market is weak. And technical bounces are enough to give you Rs 4000/- to Rs 5000/- in one trade.

We will take the instance of trading ABB August Futures. I have been giving stock futures recommendations at . At 9.45AM one lot was bought at 775/780 by subscribers on 26th July as per my recommendation. On the same day at 3.15 PM the position was squared off at 795. This gave an intra-day profit of Rs 5000/- with return of 13.15% on investment of Rs 38,000/-. As simple as that!

ABB was bought on technical reasons, though fundamental reasons were looking weak since it was rumoured that ABB was going to be taken off from FII's radar. But 50% retracement of most recent rise of ABB gave us the buy price of 775. And the scrip did not disappoint either. From 775 it exhibited a technical bounce and reached its first resistance of 200 day moving average. That was enough for us to exit the trade intra-day with a profit of Rs 5000/-. That's all there is to making sure shot money in trading stock futures.

Link to actual trade is given below:-

Stock Futures Trading Made Ezy - Ultra Tech Cement

Stock futures trading is rather a simple way of making money by retail investors. For continued success while tradng stock futures there are few things to be kept in mind;-
  1. Do not enter into more than one position at a time, whatever be the lure.
  2. Look for established clear momentum or strong swing.
  3. Do not think of trading intra-day. If your target is achieved intra-day it is bonus, but do not have that as a compulsion.
  4. Do not trade any news, good or bad.
  5. Have an amount of Rs 1 lakh in your trading account to successfully trade stock futures.
I have been giving stock futures recommendations in as a Guru. On 19th July one of my subscribers first bought Ultra Tech July Futures at 825.25 as per my recommendation. On 21 July he exited at 846 with a profit of Rs 5250/-.

Again on 27th July my subscribers entered this scrip at 826 as per my recommendations and booked intra-day profit ranging from Rs 2500/- to Rs 6000/-.

On both the occasions we had entered trade in Ultra Tech purely on technical reasons. Ultra Tech was falling at rapid pace and even the general market was weak. But the termination point of second down wave as per Elliot Wave principle was calculated with help of Fibonacci retracement. This gave us our buy price from where technical bounce was sure to take place. And so it did!

We could have opted for higher target but fundamentally cement sector is weak in monsoons and general market also had a negative bias. So we took precautions and exited at a guaranteed  level, thereby eliminating all risk factors attached with holding for higher target. Yesterday the scrip reached high of 878, thereby achieving its resistance level of 30 day moving average. But by exiting early we still could manage to extract average of about Rs 8000/- from two trades in one scrip. That works out to 19.5% return on investment of Rs 41,000/-.

Links to actual trades are given below :-

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Tensions In Kashmir - Problems And Solutions

Kashmir is a land blessed by nature. It is not just the landscape, even the populace is genetically blessed by the Almighty. The all-pervading natural beauty that one encounters in the entire valley is breath-taking. From Pehalgam to Gulmarg, Sonamarg to Baramullah, you can explore any nook and corner and you will be spellbound by the sheer opulence of nature. Anything and everything is in bountiful as far as natural beauty of the countryside is concerned. In the same vein one finds a population endowed with the best of physique and sharp, strikingly beautiful features. It compels one to ruminate that nature has been rather partial to Kashmir and Kashmiris in terms of beauty as compared to rest of India.

When we mingle with the common people, there is a sense of pure and pristine simplicity which is hallmark of hill people. And if you look back thirty years, Kashmir was the place where there was absolute peace. It was like how Leh and Ladakh is today. Then what exactly went wrong that in three decades a place symbolizing heaven on earth is pushed to a spot where even the devil shudders to trod? How is it that such peace loving populace has turned so violent that Kashmir never seem to leave the newspaper headlines. We will try and evaluate plausible reasons, away from the politics of power brokers and terror merchants.

  1. Till the time Kashmir was peaceful, there was no wedge between the minority Hindus and majority Muslims. But the Hindus controlled the actual wealth as they were landlords and affluent businessmen in the Valley.
  2. Most influential Hindus were the Brahmins who were called Kashmiri Pundits. With dominance in wealth and position in society, there existed a fiduciary relationship of master and servant between many Hindus and Muslims.
  3. Such relationship however generates excesses in behaviour, leading to certain conditions of exploitation in day-to-day life. Over a long period of time these conditions give rise to  feelings of simmering anger amongst the exploited.
  4. These are the same conditions which existed in Tamil Nadu between the Brahmins and the lower castes, which led to the movement of ethnic cleansing of Tamil Brahmins and culminated in formation of DMK(Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam).
  5. So the ground was ripe to sow seeds of discontentment and this was done by foul politics and politicians in 1987 state elections.
  6. Seizing an opportunity, as Kashmir went through political turmoils after the 1987 elections, terror mongers swung into action and spread the message of hatred. Land of peace and  tranquility suddenly erupted into one perennial volcano of guns, conflicts and violence.
Situation being as it is now, there is an urgent need to find remedial measures to bring life to normalcy in Kashmir Valley. Some of the measures suggested are listed below :-
  1. Deal with militancy with a swift and heavy hand. Weed out the militants without any political colours and compulsions. After all, there are not more than 5000 militants in the entire valley.
  2. Give a better deal to the population by going full steam for real development on ground. For that the first step is to shore up infrastructure development of the Valley which should match any International standards.
  3. With infrastructure development there should be a case to turn places in Kashmir into Special Economic Zones where industries should be allowed to proliferate. This will bring economic prosperity to Kashmir by way of exponential increase in employment opportunities.
  4. Give extra push to spreading professional education amongst Kashmiri youths so that they become endowed and empowered.
  5. After making Kashmir safe by flushing out militants, make sure that it becomes a tourist destination of the world by providing the right kind of world class infrastructure and tourist comforts.
The only way out of this logjam of militancy and terrorism is to spread prosperity in the Valley with fundamentally strong policies and plans. These policies and plans should get translated into equally swift and sound execution on ground. For that politics and rhetoric have to be kept at bay. The price that Indian Government has to pay for all this will be much smaller compared to the price it pays every year in terms of losses in man and material.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Stress Test For European Banks : Not So Stressful Though

On 23rd July 2010 results of  Stress Test for 91 banks of the European Union were declared. Of these 91 banks only seven banks failed the stress test. And Spanish banks topped the list with maximum number of failures. Five banks from Spain, one bank from Germany and one from Greece comprised the list of seven failed banks.

One year back similar Stress Test was conducted in US for 19 of its banks. Out of 19 US banks, ten banks failed the stress test conducted in May 2009. It was estimated that these banks would require an infusion of $75 billion to be credit worthy in case of another depression. That was stressful. But here when there is concerns of Sovereign Debt Default in European continent there are only seven banks out of 91 tested which failed. Estimated requirement of capital is just $ 4.5 billion to cater for any rude surprises by way of economic downturn. Isn't it wee bit surprising? It only points to a fact that the tests were not conducted rigourously. The rules applied to test the banks have been lenient. That's the only explanation one can offer.

Stress Test is like an X-ray. It tells us where all the banks and banking system have to be repaired in order to be strong enough to withstand an economic tsunami. In times of trouble if the banks fail, then what is left to bank upon for common citizens of a nation? But the European Union passed off this opportunity to find precautionary measures to safeguard itself against another economic downturn. If the doctor doesn't diagnose the patient correctly then how on earth can you prescribe the right medicine? Critics are  already saying that the stress tests on European banks were so easy that even Lindsay Lohan would have passed it.

So what could be the reason that European Union opted for losing credibility for its banks in the eyes of global investors? The tests were intended to reassure investors and help ease pressure in bank funding. This was urgently required since Sovereign debt crisis in many European nations undermined confidence in the banking system. Has the European Union achieved that goal with a Stress Test bereft of stress? I wonder not!! US investors have already lost faith in the European Banks as is evident from investment data available from various Mutual Funds. For the last two years exposure in European Banks has been drastically reducing in portfolios of US Fund Managers. Some have reduced it by as low as 60 to 80%. On top of that, this Stress Test has evoked some very caustic remarks from US Fund Managers.

Charles de Vaulx, a portfolio manager at International Value Advisers LLC said the stress tests would not change the firm's outlook on European Banks. "We find the European banks still under capitalized," de Vaulx said. "The lack of a test for sovereign risk means the test was too soft and not credible." After announcement of stress test results US markets shrugged off the results as a non event, and marched northwards on  expectations of better corporate earnings.