Saturday, August 29, 2009

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 2(R ROHMETRA)

In this series of Portfolio Analysis, now we shall be taking up Portfolio of Mr R Rohmetra who wants a long term view of 3/4 years. Since the definition of long term has somewhat changed I am offering him targets only up to two years. In that also I am not recommending some of the scrips for a two-year view for various reasons like uncertainty, correction phase expected to drag it lower than its 1 year target, etc etc. Similarly I have deliberately refrained from giving one month's target to some of the scrips because these scrips may get churned through some rough correction in near future. So here we go!

ICICI Bank
Holding 20 shares at average price of 1435. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 763.6.
6 mnth tgt - 950; 1 yr tgt - 1300; 2 yr tgt - 1650
ICICI Bank has still not corrected to 50% of its run up from Mar 2009. In fact it has not even corrected 38.2%. It has also yet to cover the gap created at 579. This means that in short term this scrip might correct to 535. Hold the scrip for its one year target of 1300 and add 40 shares more in case it falls to 535.

Relcapital
Holding 09 shares at an average price of 1803. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 872.5.
6 mnth tgt - 1420; 1 yr tgt - 2100; 2 yr tgt - 2900
Reliance Capital has completed its 38.2% correction of 1st phase of Bull run but has yet to do 50% retracement. It also has not covered a gap it created at 599. However all this does not disqualify it for continuing its march upwards in 2nd phase of Bull run. It only tells us that there is scope for the scrip to correct to 600 in short term. If it does correct to 600 level then buy 18 more shares and hold till 1 yr tgt of 2100. In case it does not correct from here then just keep on holding till its one year target.

State Bank of India
Holding 25 shares at average price of 1359. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 1782.
6 mnth tgt - 2050; 1 yr tgt - 2500; 2yr tgt - 3200
SBIN has corrected 38.2% but not corrected 50%. It has also not yet covered its gap at 1327. Hence in short term there is a chance that the scrip may come down to 1300. Just hold for at least 1 year's target. You may consider doubling your position at 1300 level.

DLF
Holding 97 shares at average price of 285. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 413.
1 mnth tgt - 550; 6 mnth tgt - 740; 1 yr tgt - 900; 2 yr tgt - 1200
DLF has completed 50% correction of its 1st phase of Bull run and is cruising in 2nd phase of Bull run. Hold this scrip till it achieves its 1 month's target of 550. After that you may consider liquidating half your holding and buying back those many shares after a substantial correction, this time for 6 month's target. You may repeat this process till you reach two year's target for the scrip.

L&T
Holding 15 shares at average price of 1316. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 1618.
6 mnth tgt - 1800; 1 yr tgt - 2200; 2 yr tgt - 2850
L&T has not completed 50% or even 38.2%retracement of 1st leg of Bull run. It needs to cover its gap at 1000. So in short term there is an atmosphere of uncertainty about the stock. However if the scrip reaches its 6 mnth target of 1800 in a month or so, then do sell the stock and book profit. Pick it up again after a strong dip and hold till its one year target.

Power Grid
Holding 1000 shares at average price of 138. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 107.6.
6 mnth tgt - 160; 1 yr tgt - 215; 2 yr tgt - 260
Power Grid has corrected 38.2% but not 50%. It may yet correct till 91. If it does come down to 91 then you may pick up 500 more shares and hold till its 1 year target of 215.

PTC
Holding 49 shares at average price of 130. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 95.25.
1 mnth tgt - 120; 6 mnth tgt - 160; 1 yr tgt - 200
PTC has technically started breaking out and will be very interesting to watch in the coming month. Hence you can contemplate buying 50 more shares at present level for one month's target. However your original holding of 49 shares should be held till the scrip reaches its one year target of 200.

Tata Power
Holding 09 shares at average price of 1111. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 1343.
1 mnth tgt - 1500; 6 mnth tgt - 1700; 1 yr tgt - 2300
Tata Power has not done even 38.2% retracement. However it looks eager to reach its target of 1500. You may like to book your profit at 1500 and then re-enter after it corrects itself in real earnest. After re-entry you should hold the scrip for its 6 month's target of 1700, book profit and employ the same strategy for its 1 year target of 2300.

Reliance
Holding 75 shares at average price of 1309. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 2074.
1 mnth tgt - 2360; 6mnth tgt - 2900; 1 yr tgt - 4000
Reliance has completed its 50% correction and should be held at least till 2360. After that you may start trading half your holding to maximise your profits till it reaches its 1 year target.

RNRL
Holding 683 shares at average price of 96. Closing price on 28 Aug 09 was 85.85.
1mnth tgt - 110; 6 mnth tgt - 145; 1 yr tgt - 190; 2 yr tgt - 250
RNRL has already witnessed 50% correction and is well poised to embark on the 2nd leg of its northwards journey. Hold RNRL for its two years' target.

RPL
Holding 1800 shares at average price of 145. RPL closed at 127.9 on 28 Aug 09.
1 mnth tgt - 160; 6 mnth tgt - 200; 1 yr tgt - 235; 2 yr tgt - 290
RPL has also completed 50% retracement and should be held till 290.

RCOM
Holding 40 shares at average price of 766. Rcom closed at 265.6 on 28 Aug 09.
1 mnth tgt - 350; 6 mnth tgt - 500; 1 yr tgt - 600; 2 yr tgt - 810
Rcom has done 50% retracement of its first leg of Bull run. So you may buy 40 shares at current level and sell at its one month's target of 350. In this way you can bring down the Buy Price of your original holding. You can choose to employ this strategy many times in this scrip's journey towards its designated targets. However sell your original holding at 810.