Friday, August 7, 2009

Dow Jones In Sluggish Mood

Dow Jones has been cautiously inching north. It is as if it is testing the patience of the world at large. It is playing its cards close to its chest, not allowing anyone to guess its intent. But if you see the larger picture it is playing out as if it was ordained so by the forces of nature. In market you can hide your intent in the short term, but in long term there is no scope for manipulation. Laws of nature have their ways to catch up.

Now in retrospect I can admit that in my blog post dated 31 Jan 09 titled " Stock Market Bottom-Revelations" I had brazenly declared that American markets have reached their bottom. That was the time when every shade of expert on markets was desperately trying to hunt for the market bottom. Today in hindsight it appears that bottom in Dow Jones has actually been established, albeit at a level lower than I had predicted then. However, I had opined that Dow from its bottom will shoot towards 9600. And there it is , romancing the level of 9400 from its bottom of 6450, though its present sluggish attitude suggests drying up of buying interest. What remains to be seen in coming days is whether it will finally touch 9600 as per my prediction on 31 Jan 09 or not.

Level of 9600 for Dow can still be missed as of now, since it has a selling zone pressure between 9000 and 9400. This I had outlined in my post titled "Look out for selling big time" dated 07 May 09. And finally I had homed on to 9500 as the best case scenario tipping-over point for Dow in my post titled "Dow Jones-Prediction For July 2009" on 29 June 2009. Hence presently I am not too very optimistic about Dow achieving 9600 in this run up.

So where does all this leave us now? It just suggests that for Dow to go on a confirmed Bull run , one needs to catch the bull by the horns as it starts its second phase of the run. That usually happens after a meaningful corrective wave comes into play. Wait for this corrective wave to form and then ride the Bull run which can take Dow to 11400 and beyond. Happy Hunting!!