Monday, April 15, 2013

Trading Plan - For Those Who Did Execute

In my last blog-post on 14 Apr 2013, I had requested my readers to enter trade today(15 Apr 2013) with some Trading Plan. Entering the market today was important with Stock Futures trade for capturing smart gains. Also in that blog-post I had suggested my own Trading Plans to enter the Futures market. One could enter the cash segment also with those Trading Plans, but they would be rewarded with a smaller profit percentage.You can check out  my last blog-post here

Let us now check how each of my recommendations have fared on the first day of trade. In other words, those who acted on my Trading Plan should be witnessing the following status in their trading accounts :-

Trading Plan # 1
1. Relinfra : Bought at 340. Closed at 356. Lot size 500. Notional Profit= 16x500= Rs 8000/-.against capital investment of Rs 38500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 380
2. Ibrealest.  No trade since buy price not achieved
3. DLF. Bought at 243. Closed at 242. Lot size 1000. Notional Loss= 1x1000= Rs 1000/-.against capital investment of Rs 48500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 275
4.Unitech  Bought at 24.25. Closed at 24.65. Lot size 10000. Notional Profit= 0.40x10000= Rs 4000/-. against capital investment of Rs 53500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 26.5
5. JSWEnergy  Bought at 56.5. Closed at 56.8. Lot size 4000. Notional Profit= 0.30x4000= Rs 1200/-. against capital investment of Rs 38500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 60
6. JPPower  Bought at 24.5. Closed at 25.25. Lot size 8000. Notional Profit= 0.75x8000= Rs 6000/-. against capital investment of Rs 33500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 26

My Trading Plan #2 is also in somewhat similar situation in the first day of trading. Let us see how these stock futures fare in the coming trading sessions. Do remember to keep appropriate trailing stop loss once the first target is achieved and you are gunning for the second target. Happy Hunting!!!

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Execute Your Trading Plan Now

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are cautious. So goes the saying, and I think this quote is attributed to Warren Buffett. 
Simmering Crisis in Global Financial Markets, gloom in Earnings Forecast of Indian companies, instability in  Indian political system - you name a negative scenario and it is present right now to scare investors in the Indian markets. No wonder Nifty is looking as if it is going to fall off the precipice. More than Nifty, big names in midcap companies are presently trading at their multi year lows and some are even at their historical lows. Fear is rampant in the markets and you can hear voices all around asking you to be cautious. It's a perfect setting for you to be greedy, because everyone else is cautious. And that is the reason why I am exhorting you today to take out your Trading Plan and go about executing it in the next trading session. In the succeeding paras I will be giving you some Trading Plans which you can execute for quick gains. But if you have your own Trading plan then do execute that with proper stops or whatever your safety mechanism is.

Trading Plan # 1.
You need to realize that I am talking about Trading and not Investing. I believe that Investing climate has still not come in any market. So investors are better advised to watch the play in global markets from the sidelines. So if we are on the same grid regarding trading, then make up your mind to deftly enter and exit a trade. No trade should be held for more than a fortnight. And yes, the only efficient way to trade is to enter the stock or index futures trade. Of course you may also enter trade in the cash segment which will be less risky, but it will be less paying.

Now for the Trading Plan proper. I am recommending that you should enter the Infrastructure space including the Power sector to pick some fundamentally strong companies to execute  futures trade. Some of the stock futures(Apr) you could consider trading for handsome gain, before expiry, are listed below:-

(a)  RELINFRA: Buy between 336/340, 1st tgt 380 & 2nd tgt 422. Stop Loss- 326. Lot size-500
(b)  IBREALEST: Buy between 52/53, 1st tgt 59 & 2nd tgt 65. Stop Loss- 50.5. Lot size-4000
(c)  DLF: Buy between 243/247, 1st tgt 275 & 2nd tgt 285. Stop Loss- 236. Lot size-1000
(d)  UNITECH: Buy between 23.5/24.5, 1st tgt 26.5 & 2nd tgt 30. Stop Loss- 22.5. Lot size-10000
(e)  JSWENERGY: Buy between 56/57, 1st tgt 60 & 2nd tgt 64. Stop Loss- 54. Lot size-4000
(f)  JPPOWER: Buy between 24.25/24.75, 1st tgt 26 & 2nd tgt 28.5. Stop Loss- 23.75. Lot size-8000

Trading Plan # 2.
The other basket you could consider trading is Cement and Capital Goods. Both the sectors are showing signs of good up-move from their multi-year lows. Reason could be anything from impending Fitch and other rating agencies' India rating upgrade to a sudden spurt in economic activities in the infrastructure sector owing to some firm policy decisions. Given below are some of the stock futures(Apr) you can pick up for smart gains before expiry:-

(a)  JPASSOCIAT: Buy between 68.15/70.15, 1st tgt 75 & 2nd tgt 81. Stop Loss- 66.5. Lot size-4000
(b)  AMBUJACEM: Buy between 173/175, 1st tgt 185 & 2nd tgt 194. Stop Loss- 170. Lot size-2000
(c)  ACC: Buy between 1140/1150, 1st tgt 1225 & 2nd tgt 1270. Stop Loss- 1130. Lot size-250
(d)  BHEL: Buy between 176/180, 1st tgt 195 & 2nd tgt 205. Stop Loss- 174. Lot size-1000
(e)  LT: Buy between 1355/1370, 1st tgt 1435 & 2nd tgt 1490. Stop Loss- 1340. Lot size-250
(f)  VOLTAS: Buy between 77/79, 1st tgt 85 & 2nd tgt 90. Stop Loss- 75. Lot size-2000

So now go ahead and execute your Trading Plan tomorrow. In case you have any queries, you can ask me through the comments section in this blogpost. I shall appreciate if you could give your trading feedback after having executed your trade. Any input from your side will be valuable in providing me with motivation to give you more Trading Plans in future. 

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Hope You Didn't Miss the Buying Opportunity

In my last post on 17 May 2012 I had recommended a buy for Nifty at 4850 for a target of 5130. In today's trade Nifty has made a day high of 5145, thus achieving my target. I hope some, if not all, of my followers could take good trading decisions based on my predictions of trend Indian stock market.

In my post dated 29 Apr 2012  I had given a clarion call to traders to be ready to start trading. I had recommended to sell Nifty at 5300 level for a target of 4850, which was achieved on 16 May 2012. In fact on 18th May Nifty breached 4800 intra-day but closed at 4891. Again on 4th June Nifty breached 4800 intra-day but closed at 4848.

In the same manner I had predicted that Dow Jones will fall 1000 points to 12200 in my post on 01 May 2012 And in first week of June 2012 Dow Jones had touched 12100 level. At the time of writing this post, Dow Jones is trading at 12547.

Coming back to Nifty and Indian markets. Nifty has completed my target of 5130, having risen from 4800 level. Now it will be prudent to watch the direction of Nifty before initiating any trade. Two clear scenarios emerge. They are as follows :-

  1. If Nifty closes above 5145 then one can enter trade on the long side for a target of 5300. However there will be some selling seen at 5200, with Nifty encountering rough weather thereabouts. 
  2. If Nifty closes below 5065 then one can go short in Nifty for a target of 4900, and may be 4850.
Fore-warned is fore-armed, so hope you trade well with the above information.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Nifty Moves Exactly As Predicted

In my post on 29 Apr 2012 I had given a call to sell Nifty at 5300 level and reiterated my stand again on 01 May 2012 post. For this sell of Nifty at 5300 level I had given a target of 4850. And Nifty achieved my target on 16 May 2012 with a day low of 4837. On 01 May 2012 post I had mentioned that Nifty will fall from 5300 in five steps and it did just that. Nifty fall trajectory from 5300 level was at follows :-
  1. As the first step Nifty fell from 5280 to 4988 on 07 May 20122.
  2. In 2nd step it rose to 5125 on 07 May itself.
  3. As 3rd step Nifty fell from 5125 to 4869 on 15 May 2012.
  4. In 4th step it rose to 4955 on 15 May.
  5. As the 5th step it fell from 4955 to 4837 on 16 May 2012
The fall to the level of 4850 having been completed, now Nifty is ready to climb up to 5130 level. I hope those who heeded my advice could make profit by selling Nifty at 5300 and covering it at 4850. I also hope traders could reverse trade at completion of wave C and buy Nifty at 4850. Now go long in Nifty till 5130 level with suitable trailing stop loss.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Sell Nifty May Futures at 5330

As indicated in my last post on 29 Apr 2012, Nifty is inching towards 5300. If you recall, I had advocated a Sell at 5300 level in my last post. So be ready to execute your trade at 5300 Nifty spot. And when you sell Nifty May contract you should look to sell at 5330 with a stop loss at 5380. When you sell Nifty May Futures at 5330 you can expect to gain 400 points from the expected fall in Nifty.

If we look at Dow Jones for indications, we find that there is a likelihood of Dow falling to 12200 level from its current level of 13200. That is an expected fall of about 1000 points from current levels. This fall will most probably happen in five steps, when Dow will execute a Flat correction. When Dow falls 1000 points from current level, then there will be some panic reaction even in Indian markets and we can expect Nifty to fall.

Nifty on its own is also on the verge of completing its correction from 5300 level, as discussed in my last post of 29 Apr 2012. Remember by falling from 5300 level Nifty will be completing wave C of its correction. So go ahead and sell Nifty May Futures at 5330 with stop loss at 5380 for a gain of 400 points, when markets reopen for trade. Most probably this expected fall in Nifty will also happen in five steps