Market Stock Trading Trend

In case you are getting frustrated with trading a market which seems illogically volatile, then you should be reading this. It will give you insights to Market Stock Trading Trends that you can easily identify and make quick profit. But then in doing so you need to be nimble footed, you need to quickly take decision to enter the market with a stock futures trade, and without getting too emotional you should as quickly move out of the trade.by way of taking profit off the table. That is easy said than done, until you learn to identify such market stock trading trend. So here I am going to help you identify such trading trends in the ensuing paragraphs. Here we go!

Market Stock Trading Trend

Even when the market is not showing any long term or medium term trend, that is when the market is not trending, you will find smaller trends in the short term. Basically these trends are due to Wave nature of the market movement and can be profited from in near term trading. Let us first understand few basic principles of Market Stock Trading Trends :-

1. Any market movement will take place in the form of Waves.
2. These waves move up in five steps in Bull Run, and conversely move down in five steps in Bear Run.
3. Movement of waves in five steps upwards means that the first step will go up, second step will come down but not below the low of first step, third step will go up higher than the high of first step, fourth step will come down but not lower than the high of first step and fifth step will either go higher than third step high or equal to that high.
4. This means that for a market trending upwards, there will be three steps taking prices upwards and there will be two steps taking prices lower. Same will be the opposite case for markets trending lower.
5. The three steps which take the prices upwards will again move in five-step waves, and the two steps taking prices lower will move down with three-step waves.

If we have assimilated this preliminary information about market movement, then we can apply this for short term trading. For identifying Market Stock Trading Trends in the short/near term in a daily stock chart, follow the instructions given below :-

• See the daily chart of a stock and try and identify whether the short term trend is up or down.
• If it is up then identify whether the third step of the wave has started or not.
• Catch the third step of the wave as it begins and buy the stock. Remember the third step of the wave is generally the most profitable with minimum risk. This step will take the prices higher than the high of first step as discussed earlier.
• As the prices go higher than the high of first step, keep a trailing stop loss and go with the price movement. As the price moves higher, move your trailing stop loss higher, till you are stopped out. This your your exit.
• Since you are looking for very short term profit, trade with stock futures so that you can get a leveraged profit, which can be substantial. In terms of Return on Investment, your profit should be averaging 25% in 4/5 trading sessions.

Hope you have got some useful insights into Market Stock Trading Trends and can use this information to profit in this market. Always use your stop loss after entering any trade. In later posts I will be giving you tips on Swing Trading Indicators so that you can enhance your prowess in Market Stock Trading Trends.

Trading Plan : Stocks Hit Target on Third Day

Those who are trading with my Trading Plan as given on 14 Apr 2013 here http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.in/2013/04/execute-your-trading-plan-now.html would have realized how powerfully some of the recommended stocks have responded in a market that was lackluster today. In fact the market closed absolutely flat with no clear direction. Even then some of stocks which achieved their first target are discussed below :-

1. JSWENERGY. Bought at 56.5 for 1st tgt of 60. Closed at 61.1. Lot size : 4000. Capital Invested : Rs 38500/-(cost of one lot). Profit realized if sold on 1st tgt : Rs 14000/-. Profit percentage : 36.3% in 3 days. In case you have not booked profit at 1st target and are playing for 2nd target of 64, then do keep trailing stop loss to protect your profits as the stock price moves towards its 2nd target.

2. UNITECH. Bought at 24.5 for 1st tgt of 26.5. Closed at 27.25. Lot size: 10000. Capital Invested : Rs 53500/-(cost of one lot). Profit realized if sold on 1st tgt : Rs 20000/-. Profit percentage: 37.3% in 3 days. In case you have not booked profit at 1st target and are playing for 2nd target of 30, then do keep trailing stop loss to protect your profits as the stock price moves towards its 2nd target.

3. JPASSOCIAT. Bought at 70 for 1st tgt of 75. Today's High at 75.8. Lot size : 4000. Capital Invested : Rs 56000/-(cost of one lot). Profit realized if sold on 1st tgt : Rs 20000/-. Profit percentage : 35.7% in 3 days. In case you have not booked profit at 1st target and are playing for 2nd target of 81, then do keep trailing stop loss to protect your profits as the stock price moves towards its 2nd target.

4. AMBUJACEM. Bought at 173 for 1st tgt of 185. Closed at 186.9. Lot size: 2000. Capital Invested : Rs 55400/-(cost of one lot). Profit realized if sold on 1st tgt : Rs 24000/-. Profit percentage: 43.3% in 3 days. In case you have not booked profit at 1st target and are playing for 2nd target of 194, then do keep trailing stop loss to protect your profits as the stock price moves towards its 2nd target.

In yesterday's trading two stocks had achieved their first targets and in today's trading four stock have achieved their first targets. In other words in three days of trading as per my recommendations, six stocks have achieved their first targets. And one could say that the profits attained are reasonably sufficient. Let us now see how all my recommendations fare till the expiry of April contract, which is on 25 Apr 2013. Best of trading!!!

Trading Plan - Sitting On Cusp Of Profit Bonanza

Those who are following this series of my Trading Plan, would recall that day before yesterday i.e. 14 Apr 2013, I had implored my readers to jump into the stock market and buy stock futures ( or even stocks) according to their Trading Plan for some smart and quick profits. Those who didn't have their own Trading Plan could use my Trading Plan as I had given in that blog-post, which you can access here : http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.in/2013/04/execute-your-trading-plan-now.html

Well today has been the second trading day and already couple of the stock futures I had recommended for buying have already achieved their first targets. Let us now analyze those stocks which have hit their first target in two trading sessions:-

1. JPPOWER. Bought at 24.5 for 1st tgt of 26. Closed at 26.25. Lot size : 8000. Capital Invested : Rs 33500/-(cost of one lot). Profit realized if sold on 1st tgt : Rs 14000/-. Profit percentage : 41.8% in 2 days. In case you have not booked profit at 1st target and are playing for 2nd target of 28.5, then do keep trailing stop loss to protect your profits as the stock price moves towards its 2nd target.

2. LT. Bought at 1355 for 1st tgt of 1435. Day High at 1435. Lot size: 250. Capital Invested : Rs 54200/-(cost of one lot). Profit realized if sold on 1st tgt : Rs 20000/-. Profit percentage: 36.9% in 2 days. In case you have not booked profit at 1st target and are playing for 2nd target of 1490, then do keep trailing stop loss to protect your profits as the stock price moves towards its 2nd target.

Even Ibrealest  has achieved my first target of 59 and closed at 59.15 today, but remember it had  failed to come down to my buy price day before yesterday. So we take it as a great missed opportunity. Rest of my recommendations are at the cusp of reaching their first target and some are also poised to achieve their second target soon. So keep faith and hold on to your positions for some astronomical gains within a week.

One last thing. In case you have any queries then do use the 'Comments' section of this blog-post and I shall be happy to answer to the best of my abilities. You may or may not have entered trade as per my Trading Plan, but by commenting you will ensure that I keep getting motivated to provide you with such recommendations in future also. Happy Trading!!!

Trading Plan - For Those Who Did Execute

In my last blog-post on 14 Apr 2013, I had requested my readers to enter trade today(15 Apr 2013) with some Trading Plan. Entering the market today was important with Stock Futures trade for capturing smart gains. Also in that blog-post I had suggested my own Trading Plans to enter the Futures market. One could enter the cash segment also with those Trading Plans, but they would be rewarded with a smaller profit percentage.You can check out  my last blog-post here http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.in/2013/04/execute-your-trading-plan-now.html

Let us now check how each of my recommendations have fared on the first day of trade. In other words, those who acted on my Trading Plan should be witnessing the following status in their trading accounts :-

Trading Plan # 1
1. Relinfra : Bought at 340. Closed at 356. Lot size 500. Notional Profit= 16x500= Rs 8000/-.against capital investment of Rs 38500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 380
2. Ibrealest.  No trade since buy price not achieved
3. DLF. Bought at 243. Closed at 242. Lot size 1000. Notional Loss= 1x1000= Rs 1000/-.against capital investment of Rs 48500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 275
4.Unitech  Bought at 24.25. Closed at 24.65. Lot size 10000. Notional Profit= 0.40x10000= Rs 4000/-. against capital investment of Rs 53500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 26.5
5. JSWEnergy  Bought at 56.5. Closed at 56.8. Lot size 4000. Notional Profit= 0.30x4000= Rs 1200/-. against capital investment of Rs 38500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 60
6. JPPower  Bought at 24.5. Closed at 25.25. Lot size 8000. Notional Profit= 0.75x8000= Rs 6000/-. against capital investment of Rs 33500/-(Cost of one lot). Hold for 1st target of 26

My Trading Plan #2 is also in somewhat similar situation in the first day of trading. Let us see how these stock futures fare in the coming trading sessions. Do remember to keep appropriate trailing stop loss once the first target is achieved and you are gunning for the second target. Happy Hunting!!!

Execute Your Trading Plan Now

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are cautious. So goes the saying, and I think this quote is attributed to Warren Buffett. 
Simmering Crisis in Global Financial Markets, gloom in Earnings Forecast of Indian companies, instability in  Indian political system - you name a negative scenario and it is present right now to scare investors in the Indian markets. No wonder Nifty is looking as if it is going to fall off the precipice. More than Nifty, big names in midcap companies are presently trading at their multi year lows and some are even at their historical lows. Fear is rampant in the markets and you can hear voices all around asking you to be cautious. It's a perfect setting for you to be greedy, because everyone else is cautious. And that is the reason why I am exhorting you today to take out your Trading Plan and go about executing it in the next trading session. In the succeeding paras I will be giving you some Trading Plans which you can execute for quick gains. But if you have your own Trading plan then do execute that with proper stops or whatever your safety mechanism is.

Trading Plan # 1.
You need to realize that I am talking about Trading and not Investing. I believe that Investing climate has still not come in any market. So investors are better advised to watch the play in global markets from the sidelines. So if we are on the same grid regarding trading, then make up your mind to deftly enter and exit a trade. No trade should be held for more than a fortnight. And yes, the only efficient way to trade is to enter the stock or index futures trade. Of course you may also enter trade in the cash segment which will be less risky, but it will be less paying.

Now for the Trading Plan proper. I am recommending that you should enter the Infrastructure space including the Power sector to pick some fundamentally strong companies to execute  futures trade. Some of the stock futures(Apr) you could consider trading for handsome gain, before expiry, are listed below:-

(a)  RELINFRA: Buy between 336/340, 1st tgt 380 & 2nd tgt 422. Stop Loss- 326. Lot size-500
(b)  IBREALEST: Buy between 52/53, 1st tgt 59 & 2nd tgt 65. Stop Loss- 50.5. Lot size-4000
(c)  DLF: Buy between 243/247, 1st tgt 275 & 2nd tgt 285. Stop Loss- 236. Lot size-1000
(d)  UNITECH: Buy between 23.5/24.5, 1st tgt 26.5 & 2nd tgt 30. Stop Loss- 22.5. Lot size-10000
(e)  JSWENERGY: Buy between 56/57, 1st tgt 60 & 2nd tgt 64. Stop Loss- 54. Lot size-4000
(f)  JPPOWER: Buy between 24.25/24.75, 1st tgt 26 & 2nd tgt 28.5. Stop Loss- 23.75. Lot size-8000


Trading Plan # 2.
The other basket you could consider trading is Cement and Capital Goods. Both the sectors are showing signs of good up-move from their multi-year lows. Reason could be anything from impending Fitch and other rating agencies' India rating upgrade to a sudden spurt in economic activities in the infrastructure sector owing to some firm policy decisions. Given below are some of the stock futures(Apr) you can pick up for smart gains before expiry:-

(a)  JPASSOCIAT: Buy between 68.15/70.15, 1st tgt 75 & 2nd tgt 81. Stop Loss- 66.5. Lot size-4000
(b)  AMBUJACEM: Buy between 173/175, 1st tgt 185 & 2nd tgt 194. Stop Loss- 170. Lot size-2000
(c)  ACC: Buy between 1140/1150, 1st tgt 1225 & 2nd tgt 1270. Stop Loss- 1130. Lot size-250
(d)  BHEL: Buy between 176/180, 1st tgt 195 & 2nd tgt 205. Stop Loss- 174. Lot size-1000
(e)  LT: Buy between 1355/1370, 1st tgt 1435 & 2nd tgt 1490. Stop Loss- 1340. Lot size-250
(f)  VOLTAS: Buy between 77/79, 1st tgt 85 & 2nd tgt 90. Stop Loss- 75. Lot size-2000

So now go ahead and execute your Trading Plan tomorrow. In case you have any queries, you can ask me through the comments section in this blogpost. I shall appreciate if you could give your trading feedback after having executed your trade. Any input from your side will be valuable in providing me with motivation to give you more Trading Plans in future. 

Hope You Didn't Miss the Buying Opportunity

In my last post on 17 May 2012 I had recommended a buy for Nifty at 4850 for a target of 5130. In today's trade Nifty has made a day high of 5145, thus achieving my target. I hope some, if not all, of my followers could take good trading decisions based on my predictions of trend reversal.in Indian stock market.

In my post dated 29 Apr 2012 http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.in/2012/04/get-ready-to-trade-way-ahead-for-indian.html  I had given a clarion call to traders to be ready to start trading. I had recommended to sell Nifty at 5300 level for a target of 4850, which was achieved on 16 May 2012. In fact on 18th May Nifty breached 4800 intra-day but closed at 4891. Again on 4th June Nifty breached 4800 intra-day but closed at 4848.

In the same manner I had predicted that Dow Jones will fall 1000 points to 12200 in my post on 01 May 2012 http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.in/2012/05/sell-nifty-may-futures-at-5330.html. And in first week of June 2012 Dow Jones had touched 12100 level. At the time of writing this post, Dow Jones is trading at 12547.

Coming back to Nifty and Indian markets. Nifty has completed my target of 5130, having risen from 4800 level. Now it will be prudent to watch the direction of Nifty before initiating any trade. Two clear scenarios emerge. They are as follows :-

1. If Nifty closes above 5145 then one can enter trade on the long side for a target of 5300. However there will be some selling seen at 5200, with Nifty encountering rough weather thereabouts. 
2. If Nifty closes below 5065 then one can go short in Nifty for a target of 4900, and may be 4850.

Fore-warned is fore-armed, so hope you trade well with the above information.

Nifty Moves Exactly As Predicted

In my post on 29 Apr 2012 I had given a call to sell Nifty at 5300 level and reiterated my stand again on 01 May 2012 post. For this sell of Nifty at 5300 level I had given a target of 4850. And Nifty achieved my target on 16 May 2012 with a day low of 4837. On 01 May 2012 post I had mentioned that Nifty will fall from 5300 in five steps and it did just that. Nifty fall trajectory from 5300 level was at follows :-

1. As the first step Nifty fell from 5280 to 4988 on 07 May 20122.
2. In 2nd step it rose to 5125 on 07 May itself.
3. As 3rd step Nifty fell from 5125 to 4869 on 15 May 2012.
4. In 4th step it rose to 4955 on 15 May.
5. As the 5th step it fell from 4955 to 4837 on 16 May 2012

The fall to the level of 4850 having been completed, now Nifty is ready to climb up to 5130 level. I hope those who heeded my advice could make profit by selling Nifty at 5300 and covering it at 4850. I also hope traders could reverse trade at completion of wave C and buy Nifty at 4850. Now go long in Nifty till 5130 level with suitable trailing stop loss.

Sell Nifty May Futures at 5330

As indicated in my last post on 29 Apr 2012, Nifty is inching towards 5300. If you recall, I had advocated a Sell at 5300 level in my last post. So be ready to execute your trade at 5300 Nifty spot. And when you sell Nifty May contract you should look to sell at 5330 with a stop loss at 5380. When you sell Nifty May Futures at 5330 you can expect to gain 400 points from the expected fall in Nifty.

If we look at Dow Jones for indications, we find that there is a likelihood of Dow falling to 12200 level from its current level of 13200. That is an expected fall of about 1000 points from current levels. This fall will most probably happen in five steps, when Dow will execute a Flat correction. When Dow falls 1000 points from current level, then there will be some panic reaction even in Indian markets and we can expect Nifty to fall.

Nifty on its own is also on the verge of completing its correction from 5300 level, as discussed in my last post of 29 Apr 2012. Remember by falling from 5300 level Nifty will be completing wave C of its correction. So go ahead and sell Nifty May Futures at 5330 with stop loss at 5380 for a gain of 400 points, when markets reopen for trade. Most probably this expected fall in Nifty will also happen in five steps

Get Ready To Trade : Way Ahead For Indian Markets

Since 22 Feb 2012 Indian markets have been slamming the investors and traders alike. There has been total lack of direction where trend has been missing from the markets. It has been a difficult time and hence traders have been particularly frustrated. Not that investors have got any respite, but those who are not in F&O segment of the market can still claim to be relatively safe from the market mauling.

The reason for such prevailing market conditions is quite simple. The market rose at a furious pace from the lows of 20 Dec 2011 to the high of 22 Feb 2012, almost in one huge step. Nifty rose from the low of 4531 to the high of 5630, an advance of about 1100 points in just two months, which can be considered as a spectacular rise. After such a hectic move up, the market has decided to take a well deserved breather. Nifty has moved within a band of 500 points since 22 Feb 2012. Sideways movements always baffle people and test the patience of even the most professional players.

However there is good news for the traders and investors alike. This sideways movement of the markets is coming to an end. Very soon we will again have a trending market and so be ready to take advantage of the emerging trend. In the ensuing elaboration I shall be talking only about Nifty and those following other indices can co-relate to those indices.

Nifty closed at 5209 on 27 Apr 2012.  From here Nifty has a resistance at 5300. This means that I am foreseeing Nifty to rise up to 5300 level and no more in the near term. That should complete wave B of the correction that started in 20 Dec 2011. From 5300 Nifty, the wave C of the correction should begin its southwards journey  and should take Nifty to level 4950 or may be even 4820. So you can short Nifty at 5300 with a stop loss of 5350 for a target of 4850.


But in case Nifty closes above 5390 then we can go long in Nifty at 5400 for a target of 5800 with a stop loss at 5350. This to my mind is an unlikely outcome, considering all prevailing micro and macro headwinds.

I shall be back with more details as the trend unfolds. I can assure you that there are very interesting times ahead and the second half of 2012 will be very rewarding for brave-heart opportunists and contrarians. So gear up to trade the evolving trend

Truths About Defence Deals And More

In recent days we have been shocked to find our most trusted pillar of faith shaking right before our eyes. Yes I am referring to Indian Army and the various forms of allegations and counter allegations flying thick and fast between the Army and the political class. It is both intriguing and painful for all of us to find our country's greatest strength getting embroiled in controversies. We gasp as each day unfolds fresh allegations and insinuations involving Indian Army and its Chief. So its time we try and view every contentious issue involving the Army in perspective and logically draw conclusions. Below is my humble attempt to do just that so as to be able to absorb everyday news flow without jumping out of one's skin, not knowing whom to believe and whom not to.

Age Row of Army Chief
Initially we were made to believe as if the Army Chief had fudged his date of birth (DOB) and was a cheat. That was the general impression one got from the news reports which were made public initially, if you recall. Later as the story unfolded it became clear that Gen V K Singh was perfectly right in defending his actual date of birth and has been  waging a battle with the organisation for a long time over his correct DOB. What is most surprising is that it is not difficult to amend the records based on the Birth Certificate and yet this simple exercise has been allowed to become a national row.

Even at this belated stage the Birth Certificate should be the criterion to fix the DOB of Army Chief and correction should be made in his records. After doing so if the political class and the hidden powers that be, want the Army Chief to retire on 31 May 2012 to make way for Lt Gen Bikram Singh, that also can very conveniently be done by sacking Gen V K Singh. Who's stopping the political masters from asking the Chief to step down by invoking any or all of the supposedly ethical issues presently at offer. By doing so the Govt would then have solved at least one of the vexed issues, which even the Supreme Court has managed to sideline.

Tapping in Defence Minister's Office
Here again the news was so tactically made public that it pointed an accusing finger at the Army Chief. The needle of suspicion was constructed in a manner that the public was made to understand that the Army was keeping illegal tabs on Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Defence Minister. If that was such an open and shut case then what is stopping the Govt to sack the Chief and make him stand trial. But the truth is far from the impression that was given to public. The intelligence agency functioning at MoD level is Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) which is directly under the Defence Minister and not the Army Chief. Then how on earth can the Army Chief plant a bug in MoD unless an establishment not under him connives with him? Really far fetched!!

Even then, where is the investigation report on the bug-scam? To date, on a matter as sensitive as tapping of MoD, no action has been taken. This embarrassing case has been promptly made public by MoD officials but no follow up has been forthcoming from them. Details of what device and where it was planted and the modus operandi of the miscreants have not been made public. One can only wonder why!

Letter Leak
Confidential letter written by Gen V K Singh to Defence Minister and the Prime Minister has been leaked in the public domain. The letter brings out in details the deficiencies in men and material that the Indian Army faces. Its a matter of grave concern since it outlines the defence unpreparedness of the Indian Army. Army Chief by voicing his concern through the letter has done well to make his political masters realize the gravity of the situation. But the letter should not have been made public. The question is as to who could have played this mischief. It is childish to think that the Army Chief would have done it. He would be the last person to do so since it would surely be akin to committing suicide. Army Chief has strongly condemned this act of high treason and has called for thorough investigation to nab the culprits. We sincerely hope that this time around this case is solved and actual culprits are made to stand trial for treachery. This case must not be allowed to be forgotten like the phone tapping case.

Nevertheless it is worth mentioning that what has been mentioned in the leaked letter was already known to the public for quite some years. In fact all defence analysts had known these facts for quite some time and the same had been chronicled in various magazines over the years. Even MoD was seized of these supposedly startling deficiencies as it collates all these data on a periodic basis though departmental reports for defence procurement. What Gen V K Singh did by writing that letter was only to draw urgent attention of Prime Minister and Defence Minister on this issue of utmost importance relating to defence preparedness of the country. Lets hope that we do not shoot the messenger who has given a wake up call to the mandarins of power for the sake of national security.

Offer of Bribe for Tatra Vehicles
Gen V K Singh opened a can of worms by making public that he was offered a bribe for recommending purchase of a tranche of 600 Tatra vehicles for Indian Army. The Army already has inducted 7000 such vehicles in the Force. Army Chief has commented that these vehicles are sub standard and are also exorbitantly priced. These are damning observations and brings to fore lot of graft in defence procurement. The man, accused of offering the bribe, has been named and is a retd officer of Army - Lt Gen Tejinder Singh. He has been with DIA and is a very influential man. Here is the link to know who Lt Gen (retd) Tejinder Singh is http://www.sunday-guardian.com/investigation/who-is-lt-gen-tejinder-singh

Notwithstanding all that is being said about the bribery scam by politicians, I think Gen V K Singh stands vindicated by what CBI has unearthed so far. There is lot of truth in what the Army Chief has said, because CBI has grilled the Vectra chief for the third time today and has issued instructions for him not to leave the country. Vectra is the company which has controlling stakes in Tatra. If the country has been been duped for all these years we laud Gen V K Singh for having the courage to call  spade a spade. We owe it to him for making a revelation that can rid this country of graft in defence procurement, much to the discomfiture of MoD officials who are responsible for defence procurement.

Now it is for you to judge whether Gen V K Singh is a patriot or a traitor. Is it more important for us to clean the system or to quietly fade into obscurity as is desired by our politicians and bureaucrats? Time has come to accept no nonsense in cases of graft eroding the very edifice of our country, whatever be the price.