Monday, June 29, 2009


Dow Jones is precariously perched at the top of current bullish run. Whether you call it bear-market rally or start of a bull run, Dow is likely to face stiff resistance going forward. The best case scenario is that Dow reaches 9500 and tips over for serious correction. But the most likely tipping point will be between 8625 and 8700.

The current week will be a shortened trading week for US markets with markets remaining closed on Friday, being Independence Day. June employment data will be released on Thursday and the rest of the week doesn't foretell any significant up move for the market.

Negative sentiments could prevail with the sentencing of Bernard Madoff for his multi-billion dollar fraud, that being a reminder to investors that Wall Street is still not the right place to park one's hard earned money.

However what is more important is to watch Dow level of 8250. In case 8250 is breached on a closing basis then we are going to have trouble going forward. Dow will then be available for trading at 7250-7500 levels in the short term.