When you start making mistakes, they come in a bundle. After making the mistake of getting overwhelmed by company aura and fundamentals in the case of Reliance (as discussed in my last post http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.com/2010/09/stock-futures-trading-made-un-ezy.html), I made the cardinal mistake of 'trading news' in this curious case of JP Associates. I seem to have developed a penchant for not practicing what I am preaching. In fact just 45 days back, I had written a post which did spell out things to be ensured to succeed in trading stock futures. And of course in that post I clearly warned everyone against trading any news - good or bad. Check out this link here : http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/6872/stock-futures-trading-made-ezy-ultra-tech-cement/
But when it came to observing my rules, I fell short of expectations. The news, which lured me into breaking my own rules, was that a deal had been brokered between agitating farmers and UP Govt for land compensation rate along Yamuna Expressway. Agitating farmers were demanding higher compensation rate for acquisition of their land by UP Govt. Finally the govt conceded to giving Rs 580 per sq m to agitating farmers. This was a huge plus for JP Group which is developing Yamuna Expressway and connected infrastructure along this corridor. Now JP Group could progress with Project implementation in real earnest after lingering for nearly nine years.
The potential of this news was so huge that JP Associate Aug Futures surged from 117 to 125 in 3 trading sessions. On fateful day of 23rd Aug I succumbed to the potential of this news and recommended a buy at 121/122.5 to my subscribers at http://www.stockezy.com/ . From that day onwards JP Associates kept sliding down for eight trading sessions. On 31st Aug it made a low of 107.8. The reason for this slide was that a faction of farmers led by a new leader rejected the deal and hankered for still higher compensation rate. They even turned violent and burned earth moving equipment and damaged other assets of JP Group. So much for trading good news!!
Sitting 1600 km away we had to move into damage control mode. On 30th Aug I advised my subscribers to buy one lot JP 120 Call of Sep series at 2.5/3.5. Again on 31st Aug I advised them to buy another lot of JP 110 Call of Sep series at 4.05/4.15. Un-ezy trading details, as things happened in trading room on daily basis, are available in this link here : http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/7186/buy-jp-associate-sep-futures/
In last trading session JP Associates Sep Fut made a high of 127.7 . But for me and my subscribers it was one of the costliest lessons learned the hard way - "Never trade News".
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Stock Futures Trading Made Un-Ezy : Reliance Industries
Harsh lessons have surfaced from trading Reliance Futures. A company which stands at world No 2 in terms of returns to shareholders, has given sleepless nights to my subscribers for about a month for having bought it at seemingly reasonable price level of 1000. This happened at a time when indices were slowly creeping northwards, while Reliance slid south.
Let me begin from the start. On 10 Aug 2010, I had recommended buying Reliance Aug Fut to my subscribers at http://www.stockezy.com/ at 990/1000. This decision to buy at 1000 level was result of awe for the company and not any technical reason. On the contrary I had aired my technical view at the site on 6th Aug. Reproduced below is relevant comments section of this link http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/6934/buy-ambujacem-aug-futures/ which explains it all :-
Let me begin from the start. On 10 Aug 2010, I had recommended buying Reliance Aug Fut to my subscribers at http://www.stockezy.com/ at 990/1000. This decision to buy at 1000 level was result of awe for the company and not any technical reason. On the contrary I had aired my technical view at the site on 6th Aug. Reproduced below is relevant comments section of this link http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/6934/buy-ambujacem-aug-futures/ which explains it all :-
Posted by Shan Upadhyaya - Fri, Aug 06, 2010 1:27PM IST
“
Mam. I have one lot reliance @ 1017. bought it yesterday. what are your views for reliance? Its been making new lows everyday.
”“
@Shantanu. Reliance is technically in down move. It has strong support at 960. So broadly it will come down to 980 before it manages a technical bounce. So try and get out of this position at around 1020.
”But as I mentioned earlier, the fundamentals of the company got the better of my senses and I was as if mesmerized into recommending Reliance, believing 1000 level to be mouth watering level, against my own technical reading. Result was that on 18th Aug the scrip slid down to 962.4 and from there bounced back to 997.4 on 20th Aug. So much profit could have been realized if only I had not got over-awed by name of the company. While trading stock futures it is absolutely imperative not to get carried away by fundamentals of a company. In fact 12 months back I had laid down certain Laws to be observed during trading in stock market. In this trade I violated Law #3 enunciated in this post of mine http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/3514/Starter-Kit-For-Newbie-Investors--Laws-of-Nature/
Finally on 30th and 31st Aug when Reliance made a low of 920.9 we had to resort to buying one lot each of Reliance Sept 1000 and 980 Call options. This was to facilitate easy exit from the combined positions of Futures and options. That was achieved and today in trading Reliance finally made a day high of 1004, revisiting our buy price level. Uneasy actual trading details are here in this link http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/7024/buy-reliance-aug-futures/
Sunday, September 12, 2010
The Truth About Backlinks Inner Circle Review
For the World Wide Web, Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is like water to a plant. For SEO work to be successful on a website, links need to go in and out of that website. Back links are also referred to as inbound links and are submitted to other sites. There is a company that knows the importance of links and according to Backlinks Inner Circle Review, they do this well.
They stress the importance of back links to reach higher rankings in search engines. The more links on other websites, the more credibility with search engines and that means the higher one will be seen in search engine results. This company will recommend a marketing strategy that includes efforts to obtain more popularity for links.
They build back links that are of quality information and that are related to the company website. Search engines will not place a lot of weight on links that are not related to the specific website. There is no use linking to car tires when your website is all about speedboats. A site with only a small number of quality back links, will position itself higher for targeted keywords. Sites with several unrelated links will not have a good ratings. This is where the experts will assist a company to get the keywords and links right.
There are various ways in which they will assist a company to obtain back links for their website. Some of these methods are done free while others will cost money. The free options are to place the website on a large number of directories that are available on the Internet. They have knowledge of the reputable directory sites and will use those to ensure the website will have search engine favor.
Link exchange is another method that they will apply to a company website. This is when a web master creates a link on a website, which points to other webmasters. One-way links hold more advantages that two-way search engines will ignore links and irrelevant links. Webmasters usually have several websites and some are not even related to the other.
Backlink Inner Circle is aware of this and will irradiate any problems relating to IP clashes. This happens when the same IP is picked up more than once on the same website. A search engine will regard this as duplication and ignore one or all of these links.
One of the best ways to build links is to use an article directory. Such a directory contains a huge amount of articles. It allows one to publish articles together with links in a resource box. These directories ask for quality content, they approve and publish the content and in return provide a suitable category for the website and provide the links.
The newest method is to post discussions in forums and blogs. Most often, these websites already carry extremely successful links and SEO optimization, therefore the moment a company name appears in one of these pages, it will be displayed very high in search engine results. Backlinks Inner Circle knows this too well and is available to assist companies in all of the above-mentioned strategies.
For the World Wide Web, Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is like water to a plant. For SEO work to be successful on a website, links need to go in and out of that website. Back links are also referred to as inbound links and are submitted to other sites. There is a company that knows the importance of links and according to Backlinks Inner Circle Review, they do this well.
They stress the importance of back links to reach higher rankings in search engines. The more links on other websites, the more credibility with search engines and that means the higher one will be seen in search engine results. This company will recommend a marketing strategy that includes efforts to obtain more popularity for links.
They build back links that are of quality information and that are related to the company website. Search engines will not place a lot of weight on links that are not related to the specific website. There is no use linking to car tires when your website is all about speedboats. A site with only a small number of quality back links, will position itself higher for targeted keywords. Sites with several unrelated links will not have a good ratings. This is where the experts will assist a company to get the keywords and links right.
There are various ways in which they will assist a company to obtain back links for their website. Some of these methods are done free while others will cost money. The free options are to place the website on a large number of directories that are available on the Internet. They have knowledge of the reputable directory sites and will use those to ensure the website will have search engine favor.
Link exchange is another method that they will apply to a company website. This is when a web master creates a link on a website, which points to other webmasters. One-way links hold more advantages that two-way search engines will ignore links and irrelevant links. Webmasters usually have several websites and some are not even related to the other.
Backlink Inner Circle is aware of this and will irradiate any problems relating to IP clashes. This happens when the same IP is picked up more than once on the same website. A search engine will regard this as duplication and ignore one or all of these links.
One of the best ways to build links is to use an article directory. Such a directory contains a huge amount of articles. It allows one to publish articles together with links in a resource box. These directories ask for quality content, they approve and publish the content and in return provide a suitable category for the website and provide the links.
The newest method is to post discussions in forums and blogs. Most often, these websites already carry extremely successful links and SEO optimization, therefore the moment a company name appears in one of these pages, it will be displayed very high in search engine results. Backlinks Inner Circle knows this too well and is available to assist companies in all of the above-mentioned strategies.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
STAR MAJHA Features Stockezy : My 2nd Appearance On TV
My pic being flashed as Stockezy Guru on Star Majha. Feels nice. Thanks to Stockezy.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Any Place Left For US Investors To Hide? - Impending Bond Bubble Burst
Bond markets and bullion markets are considered as safe haven for risk averse investors. For risk tolerant investors stock markets and forex markets are supposed to be the places to be in. But when risks in stock markets increase to untenable and unbearable levels, even the risk tolerant investors seek out the safety of bond markets and bullion markets. This action of investors is often described eloquently as "flight to safety".
Now there is disaster lurking around the corner in US bond market in the shape of a bubble burst. Abysmally low interest rate regime coupled with high demand for bond papers has resulted in high price of bond with extremely low yield. Hence investors chasing some decent yield end up buying high-yield-junk bonds. This has caused a bubble like situation in US Bond Market. The last bastion of safety for US investors is on the verge of a collapse. Will there be no place for US investors to hide?
I have no ready answer to offer for US investors. They surely will have some Plan B tucked up their proverbial sleeves. After all they are the most sophisticated and evolved investors on this planet with the deepest pockets. But of late in US stock markets they have been behaving like small school children. Almost everyday some weekly economic data or the other is churned out from various US organisations. And everyday US investors act according to the sentiment of the data. That means if the data is negative they sell off in stock market and vice versa. Hence you have two days of gain and on third day all your gains are erased because that day some weekly data is negative in tone.
It is a sad commentary on the sophistication of supposedly the most evolved financial wizards and savvy investors of the world. Then tell me how are they any different from investors of Banana Republics? Going forward if that is how US stock markets are going to keep behaving, it will not be long before other markets stop looking for direction from US markets. That will be the stepping stone to the oft quoted concept of "Decoupling"
Now there is disaster lurking around the corner in US bond market in the shape of a bubble burst. Abysmally low interest rate regime coupled with high demand for bond papers has resulted in high price of bond with extremely low yield. Hence investors chasing some decent yield end up buying high-yield-junk bonds. This has caused a bubble like situation in US Bond Market. The last bastion of safety for US investors is on the verge of a collapse. Will there be no place for US investors to hide?
I have no ready answer to offer for US investors. They surely will have some Plan B tucked up their proverbial sleeves. After all they are the most sophisticated and evolved investors on this planet with the deepest pockets. But of late in US stock markets they have been behaving like small school children. Almost everyday some weekly economic data or the other is churned out from various US organisations. And everyday US investors act according to the sentiment of the data. That means if the data is negative they sell off in stock market and vice versa. Hence you have two days of gain and on third day all your gains are erased because that day some weekly data is negative in tone.
It is a sad commentary on the sophistication of supposedly the most evolved financial wizards and savvy investors of the world. Then tell me how are they any different from investors of Banana Republics? Going forward if that is how US stock markets are going to keep behaving, it will not be long before other markets stop looking for direction from US markets. That will be the stepping stone to the oft quoted concept of "Decoupling"
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