Take the Swing this Wednesday - Find the Most Eligible Candidate

Short term trading through the instrument of stock futures can be most rewarding and tension free if you can identify and trade the swing in prices. Swing trading can even allow you the liberty of trading without stop loss - provided you identify and join the swing at the appropriate time.

This Wednesday you can trade the swing in Bank Nifty. And the most eligible candidate in the banking counter is State Bank of India.

If you are going to trade March contract of SBI in NSE, then my suggestion is to buy in the range of 184/185 for a target of 190. SBI closed at 185.8 in yesterday's trade.

There is a caveat though. This trade in SBI Mar Futures needs to be initiated if Nifty opens flat or slightly positive. But in case Nifty opens deep in the red, then buy SBI Mar Future in the range of 181/182, target remaining the same.

Enjoy the swing!!!

Impending Doom In World Equity Markets

US equity markets are poised to crash, and with it the world markets will collapse. Tracking the movements of Dow Jones Industrial Average, for clues to such an event unfolding, is the blog "Trading Opportunities In Stock Markets". Check out this blog for it will help investors in India to exit before there is serious wealth erosion of retail investors. Join this site for getting daily information on Dow movement and its implications. Here is the link below :-

http://shurojit.blogspot.in/

Safe Investing!

Markets Have Corrected - Time To Buy Again

Those who have been waiting for my post since 31st May, would realize that I have been quiet for a reason. There has been bloodletting in Indian markets and in such situations its better to witness from the sidelines. That is why I have been giving no recommendations for the last two weeks. I wanted the dust to settle down before we take up the fight again. Now the time has come to start buying in Indian stock market. You may well ask - why? There are many reasons which I shall elaborate in succeeding paragraphs, but the primary reason is technical in nature. You see, there is this Golden Ratio of 61.8% which is generally found in all aspects of nature. This has been expounded by an Italian mathematician named Fibonacci. Today Nifty has retraced exactly 61.8% of its earlier up-move  from 5477(10 April 2013) to 6229(20 May 2013). See it in the chart given below:-

That's the technical aspect for starting your buy tomorrow. The other reasons for buying which will have sentimental and fundamental effects on Indian markets are listed below :-

1. Rating Agency Fitch has revised the outlook for India from Negative to Stable.
2. Rupee has reversed its falling trend and has risen 1% against the US Dollar.
3. Finance Minister will announce measures to rescue Rupee tomorrow.
4. Globally Dollar is weakening as is evident from the Dollar Index

So there you are! Come tomorrow be mentally prepared to start shopping in Indian stocks of substance. Nifty is expected to open  with a gap up tomorrow and should cruise to level of 5850. Today Nifty closed at 5760. Happy Trading! 

Storm It Was - A Terrifying One At That!

It was not Nifty or Sensex falling today, but the manner in which they fell. Simply wiped out the species called bulls from the market. It was terrifying to say the least. It was a super storm. In my last blog-post I had a premonition that a storm was in the making. Check out this post here.

I was wondering why an expiry day was so dull. It was as I was contemplating - a lull before the storm. Bulls were being made to climb up the gum tree. It was a perfect setting for a Bull Trap. Well done Bears!.

That said, I am not fully convinced that the gruesome sell off had anything to do with GDP numbers as is being publicized. GDP numbers were in fact a tad better than market expectations. And if expected GDP numbers did not rattle the markets yesterday, then why the sell off today. It doesn't stand to reason. The combination of following can be the reason for such determined sell off:-

1. RBI Governor hinted that rate cut is not likely. And since this rally was June rate cut driven, hence the sell off today.
2. PM hints at cabinet reshuffle, so an air of uncertainty hangs in air. And markets loathe uncertainty.
3. The relentless slide in Rupee against Dollar, indicating that tapering of QE-3 in US is on the cards. This will result in tightening of liquidity in markets for all asset classes. 

That said we had Chamblfert June Futures hitting its stop loss at 58. Hence we had to book loss of Rs 8000/- .Sadly there seems to be Policy Paralysis for Fertilizer Companies, even when the monsoons are approaching and clarity on subsidy is awaited from Govt. With non-Urea fertilizer prices being so high, farmers will adopt Urea as their preferred fertilizer. Let us see what Govt decides to do in an agrarian economy - further snuff out agri-based industries or give incentive to boost them. Time will tell!

I am planning to run a series through this blog on all profitable Indian industries that Govt has succeeded in butchering through its quaint policies. God knows what sadistic pleasure is being derived by the GovtOthrough such policies. We shall evaluate later, so keep checking out this space.

Lackluster Expiry - Is It Calm Before Storm

An uninspiring expiry day!. Markets did nothing much throughout the day and very stock specific action ensured that markets closed in green. But the actual fact cannot be gauged by the green tick in Nifty or Sensex. The actual story of the broader market was that it sold off. There were more declines than advances. Metals and Infrastructure bore the brunt of selling, even as Indices rose from red.

But it was surprising that there was hardly any volatile movement on an expiry day. No mad surges to cover positions and hence it was overall a boring session for an expiry day. However the slide in the Indian markets was not as pronounced as the overnight global qualms. With Dow having closed 106 points on worries of tapering Quantitative Easing (QE-3), one could have got more jolt in Indian markets. By that standard there was calm in our markets today.

Be that as it may, we have a position on the buy side still standing. It is Chamblfert June Futures which closed down today at 56.1. In case you forgot, I had recommended its buy yesterday in this post.
Those holding this position should hold it till 50. All the best!.