PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 7 (J P SHARMA)

Presently we are going to do an interesting portfolio analysis of Mr J P Sharma where the choice of companies is rather fascinating. There is immense scope in this portfolio for impressive gains over the next one year. Shall we begin then?

Unitech
Holding 500 shares at an average price of Rs 83. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 109
6 mnth tgt- 160, 1yr tgt- 200
Since you are sitting on profit and market correction is expected soon, you may like to sell 50% of your holding at about 120 and release your capital. After the correction you may like to pick up Unitech at 75/80 level. Then hold your position for one year's target of 200.

Suzlon
Holding 500 shares at an average price of Rs 96. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 94.6
6 mnth tgt- 180, 1yr tgt- 320
Suzlon should be bought at every dip. So be ready to add to your holding in small packets till level of 80. Such accumulation in the scrip will pay you handsome dividends in one year. Sell your complete position once the scrip reaches the price target of Rs 320.

DLF
Holding 90 shares at an average price of Rs 343. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 423.6
6 mnth tgt- 700, 1yr tgt- 900
DLF may correct till 300 and may on extreme conditions go down as much as 250. You can keep a stop loss of 385 and keep holding your position. You may then re-enter the scrip at 300 for the price target of 900 in one year or so.

Bhartiartl
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 612. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 413.5
6 mnth tgt- 550, 1yr tgt- 750
Hold your position in this scrip and plan to add to your position during the correction. Fall below 390 can take the scrip to 340/350. Buy 50 additional shares at 350. Hold the scrip for one year's target of 750.

Mundra Port
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 610. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 537.5
6 mnth tgt- 800, 1yr tgt- 1100
Mundra port can slide down to 400 if it closes below 520. Double your holding if the scrip touches 400. Hold your position for one year's target of 1100.

RNRL
Holding 200 shares at an average price of Rs 140. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 88.15
6 mnth tgt- 145, 1yr tgt- 190, 2 yr tgt- 250
RNRL can correct to 70 once it closes below 83. Keep accumulating the scrip from 70 downwards till 60. Hold your position till one year's target of 190.

Alok Industries
Holding 1000 shares at an average price of Rs 22.45. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 22.7
6 mnth tgt- 33, 1yr tgt- 42
Alok Industries can fall to 15 level but you should keep holding your position. You should start accumulating at dips right from 19 till 15. You can then sell your positions comfortably at one year's target of 42.

SBI
Holding 60 shares at an average price of Rs 343. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 2142
6 mnth tgt- 2300, 1yr tgt- 3200
You have SBI at IPO price so just keep holding it till its one year target of 3200.

GMR Infra
Holding 100 shares at an average price of Rs 143. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 140.7
6 mnth tgt- 200, 1yr tgt- 260
GMR Infra may correct to 110. You may start building up your position from 110 downwards. Hold the scrip for one year's target of 260.

RPL
Holding 160 shares at an average price of Rs 146. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 130.4
6 mnth tgt- 200, 1yr tgt- 235, 2 yr tgt 290
RPL can move down to 110 during the coming market correction. But you should only think of adding to your present position. Sell only when the scrip touches 290.

NTPC
Holding 260 shares at an average price of Rs 198. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 208.8
1yr tgt- 300
NTPC looks quite dicey below 200. You have a choice to move out of this scrip at current market price and re-enter at 170. It may go down to even 150 level, but over one year it will surely touch 300.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 4 ( S S HUSSAIN )

Here in this portfolio analysis we have a case of Mr Hussain who wants a three year horizon for his portfolio. However my recommendation to him will be to watch for one year targets and take profit there. After that he will have plenty of opportunity to pick up the shares again at a lower price since those targets are at supply zones. Lets begin the exercise.

DLF
Holding134 shares at an average price of Rs 358. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 430.1
6 mnth tgt- 700, 1 yr tgt- 900
You should keep holding the share for a target of 900. It may also trade at 1200 around two years down the line.

GMR Infra
Holding 287 shares at an average price of 76. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 142.8
6 mnth tgt- 200, 1yr tgt 260
You have a profitable position to hold. At the most GMR may come down to 110 in near future expected correction. Hold till target of 260 is achieved.

BPL
Holding1000 shares at an average price of Rs 24.15. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 36.85
6 mnth tgt- 45, 1 yr tgt- 65
Currently BPL may come down to the zone of 25 to 30. Since you will not be in any loss, therefore keep holding till target of 65.

BHEL
Holding 14 shares at an average price of Rs 1504. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was Rs 2285.
6 mnth tgt- 2800, 1 yr tgt- 3900.
BHEL may come down to 1700 level in the foreseeable correction. It will be very weak if it closes below 2200. However you do not have to worry since your position will not give you any loss even if the correction does take place. Hence keep on holding it till 1 year's target of 3900.

GSPL
Holding 590 shares at an average price of Rs 59. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was Rs 79.4
6 mnth tgt- 95, 1 yr tgt- 110
GSPL may correct to 50 level in near term. You may like to add to your position if it does come down to 50. What ever be the case, exit position only at 1 year's target of 110.

Rcom
Holding 90 shares at an average price of Rs 359. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 307.5
6 mnth tgt- 500, 1 yr tgt- 600, 2 yr tgt- 810
Rcom may come down to 250 level if the markets correct now, of which there is high probability. You can plan to add to your position at 260 and off load your complete position at two year's target of 810.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 1(ABHINAV)

The reason why I have undertaken this particular exercise of Portfolio Analysis is simple. Here is the time to take hard look at your portfolio, if you have one. I am going to give answers to some investors who have been enquiring as to what to do with the present holdings in their portfolio. To start with this exercise let me take up the portfolio of one Mr Abhinav, who wants one year's view of his portfolio. His portfolio holding reads like this:-
3iinfotech
Holding 500 shares at average price of 75. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 88.6.
Resistance - 94.
1 mnth tgt - 114
6 mnth tgt - 135
1 yr tgt - 172
3iinfotech is in 2nd phase of Bull run and the correction for 1st phase of Bull run has already happened upto 50%. Hence it is an eligible candidate for hold. It needs to be accumulated at every serious dip till it reaches its 1 yr target.
Arvind
Holding 500 shares at an average price of 22.5. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 31.9.
Resistance - 35
1 mnth tgt - 41
6 mnth tgt - 52
1 yr tgt - 62
Arvind Mills has completed its 50% correction of 1st phase of Bull run and presently in 2nd phase of Bull run. It can be accumulated at every dip for its 1yr target of 62. Presently a strong contender for hold.
Dish TV
Holding 250 shares at average price of 38. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 48.65.
Resistance - 57.
1 mnth tgt - 65
6 mnth tgt - 75
1yr tgt - 103
Dish TV looks pretty to be held through its journey in 2nd phase of Bull run since the scrip has completed 50% retracement of its 1st leg of Bull run. Hold and accumulate in major dips till its 1 yr target of 103.
Mirc Electr
Holding 2000 shares at average price of 16. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 19.45.
1 mnth tgt - 23.5
6 mnth tgt - 26
1 yr tgt - 28
Mirc Electronics has completed 50% correction of its 1st phase of Bull run and is sailing in 2nd phase of Bull run. Hold this scrip till it achieves its 1 mnth's target of 23.5. After that wait for major correction and again pick it up at around 18 for its 1 yr target of 28
Suzlon
Holding 350 shares at average price of 110. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 93.6.
1 mnth tgt - 139
6 mnth tgt - 180
1 yr tgt - 255
Suzlon has also completed 50% retracement of 1st leg of Bull run and is well poised for substantive jump in its 2nd leg of Bull run. Hold for impressive returns. One can accumulate more at current level also for 1 yr target of 255.
Satyam
Holding 800 shares at average price of 136. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 110.2.
1 mnth tgt - 145
6 mnth tgt - 185
1 yr tgt - 320
Satyam needs to be held till 145 at least, but this has to be again picked up at regular corrections till it achieves its 1 yr target of 320.
GMR Infra
Holding 100 shares at average price of 136. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 142.9.
1 mnth tgt - 170
6 mnth tgt - 200
1 yr tgt - 260
GMR Infra can be liquidated initially at 170 and again bought at 150 for its 1 yr target of 260.
Ind Hotel
Holding 150 shares at average price of 60. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 65.75.
Resistance - 80
1 mnth tgt - 90
6 mnth tgt - 120
1 yr tgt - 132
Hold Ind Hotel for its 6 month's target of 120.
Zee News
Holding 400 shares at average price of 43. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 44.35.
Resistance - 50
1 mnth tgt - 62
6mnth tgt - 75
1 yr tgt - 95
Hold Zee News for its 1 month's target of 62. Keep accumulating at major dips for its 1 yr target of 95.

Indian Markets Mar 2009 : Infrastructure Sector - Buying Opportunity

Infrastructure as a Sector should be gearing up to take credit for outperforming the market in near future. It has been beaten down enough for obvious reasons of credit crunch. So one was expecting some relief rally in this sector since Govt is expected to focus on infrastructure and power in India. These two sectors require urgent attention in India and Govt had conveyed enough towards the same. Good intentions of Govt aside there seems to be no infusion of smart money into these sectors so far. In other words, signs of Accumulation are missing in the charts.

Talking of pure infrastructure companies, one is left baffled to find that their charts are in shambles. Maybe its a reflection of the global contraction in 2009 that World Bank has predicted on 08 Mar 2009 in preparation of G-20 Finance Ministers' Meet on 14 Mar 2009. Developing countries are expected to be worst hit with a financing shortfall of $270 bn to $700 bn this year as per World Bank estimates. No wonder the charts are so bearish even after interest rate cuts and other sops Indian Govt has offered. So now is the time to pick buying opportunities in infrastructure companies albeit with due caution. We shall analyse buy levels of two important infrastructure companies.

IVRCL Infra
Ivrcl Infra is safe till it does not close below 96 . However close below 96 will be catastrophic for IVRCL. Hence there is no buying sense at the present level of 110. The first buying opportunity for retail investors is at 53. However a close above 130 from present level will offer good buying opportunity, which seems quite unlikely at the moment.

GMR Infra
Retail investors should not touch GMR infra at current level of 68 even with a 10 ft barge pole. The first real buying opportunity will present itself at 28. There may be some buying interest generated at its historic low of 40, but then its better to exercise restraint. However if you have a big appetite for taking risk then you may try your luck at 50.