Banking on Banks - Will They Deliver?

Market Direction
Indian markets may open down today. Reasons are as indicated below:-

• Asian markets are trading in red.
• SGX Nifty is down 50 points.
• CPI inflation data has jumped to 5.39%
• SEBI to introduce KYC norms for P-Notes
• Dow closed flat yesterday

March Quarter Results
Quarterly results of three banks will be declared today. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the outcome.

Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank and Union Bank will be coming out with results of quarter ending March 2016. There is high expectation from these results. If the results are good then entire banking sector will get a boost in coming trading sessions.

Positives For Banking Sector
Results of banks declared today will indicate future direction for banking sector. Good results are expected for following reasons:-

• Provisioning for NPAs in March quarter will be less, thereby increasing profit for banks. This I had already indicated in my earlier post. Check here.
• Bank of Baroda should declare very good result since it had fully provisioned for NPAs in December quarter.

Banking stocks should also get fillip from following positive news :-

• Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016 has been passed by both Houses of Parliament. This will immensely benefit banks in tackling their stressed assets.
• RBI has tightened norms for aggregate lending to large corporate borrowers. This will lower the risk of defaults of large corporate borrowings being passed on to banking system These rules will apply from next financial year.

Call-to-Action

In my post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as indicated below:-

1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Keep sell target at 206. Yesterday it closed at 188.3
2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Initial target given was 166. If results are good then extend sell target to 180. Yesterday it closed at 158.4

Another Manic Monday - Has Market Fluctuation Dampened Your Trading Spirit ?

Last Friday Nifty recovered from day low of 7789 and closed at 7850, giving some relief to market. Dangers still lurk.

Today indications from asian markets are bearish:-

• Asian markets are in red.
• Global oil is slightly down
• SGX Nifty is down by 50 points.
• Gold is up indicating poor condition for equities.

Call-to-Action

In my post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as given below:-

1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Target 206. Friday it closed at 189.5
2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Target 166. Friday it closed at 158.8

Bank of India Apr Futures was rolled over to May Futures. It was bought at 98 and revised target given was 99/100. Friday it closed at 92.5 

Indian Markets Volatile - Nifty Levels to Watch

There is a saying among market participants  " Sell in May and Go Away" . Historically month of May has been a difficult month  for investors. In this month markets generally trend lower.

It is believed that in this month big players like Fund Managers go on summer vacation. This could be one reason for apprehension that month of May will not be profitable for investors.

Here mark my word "Investors", Yes this market adage may be true for investors, but for traders every month is an opportunity.

As traders in Stock Futures, what can we expect in May 2016? To find an answer to this question, let us analyse various probable situations. In this post we will discuss possible Nifty movements.



Situation # 1  Nifty moves higher from current market price (CMP)

• For Nifty to move higher, it has to close above 8000. That will be the first sign.
• If Nifty closes above 8000 in 2/3 days, then we can expect 8400 as target.
• But if Nifty takes more time to reach 8000, then target will get restricted to 8100

 Situation # 2  Nifty moves sideways from current market price (CMP)

• If Nifty has to move sideways, the range would be between 8100 and 7700.
• Sign for sideways movement will appear when from a sudden bounce from CMP, Nifty drops with same ferocity to 7700.
• From 7700, Nifty then takes longer time to reach back to 8100/8000. In such a situation, Nifty will finally move up if it takes support from 100 day SMA (Simple Moving Average).
• But Nifty will go down if Nifty does not take support from 100 day SMA

Situation # 3  Nifty moves lower from current market price (CMP)

• For move down, first sign will be if Nifty fails to close above 7950.
• Nifty then closes below 7700.
• Final signal for bear market to be established, Nifty has to close below 7500.

Take notice, trade safely!

Yen Rise Markets Tumble - Will There be Recovery?

Boooooooooom! It felt like one has been blown to smithereens. That was what Bank of Japan did to markets around the globe. But even Central Bank of Japan did not know markets will be smashed by their innocuous looking decision.

Bank of Japan yesterday took a decision of keeping the deposit rate unchanged at -1%.. Nothing disastrous should have happened since these rates were continuing since Feb 2016 and markets were used to it. Then why did global markets sell off so ferociously?

You must catch the details in this column : Japan Unsettles Global Markets - Havoc Spreads

Frankly speaking I did not foresee such devastating reaction to Bank of Japan decision to keep rates unchanged.  On the contrary I had expected Nifty to do very well in trade yesterday. Fed had not been hawkish and I did not think Bank of Japan did anything wrong to upset market. Our own local conditions had no fresh negative news to rattle Indian markets.

So in my last post I was very certain that Nifty will get past 8000 with ease, and may even reach 8100. How horribly wrong I was!

Yesterday Nifty lost massive 132 points and closed at 7847, doing exactly the opposite of what I had predicted

Today also indications from global markets are not good :-

• Dow closed down by 210 points.
• Asian markets are in negative territory
• Global oil is slightly down
• SGX Nifty is down by 37 points.
• Gold is up which does not bode well for equities

Call-to-Action

In my post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as given below:-

1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Target 206. Yesterday it closed at 192.2
2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Target 166. Yesterday it closed at 160.8

Bank of India Apr Futures was rolled over to May Futures. It was bought at 98 and revised target given was 99/100. Yesterday it closed at 96.3

Markets Poised to Perform Well on Expiry Day

Today is expiry day for April derivatives contracts. Indian markets should do well because of following positive news flow :-

• US Fed kept its rates unchanged.
• Dow closed up by 51 points.
• Bank of Japan has kept it's interest rates unchanged.
• Asian markets are mostly in green
• Global oil is up
• SGX Nifty is up by 32 points (Update at 9AM : SGX Nifty has suddenly turned negative by 16 points)

Yesterday headline for my morning post was "Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty". Indian markets did laze around in yesterday's trade. Nifty low was 7941 and high was 7991, merely 50 points of intraday variation.

Market Direction
Today Nifty should do well and cross 7800 with ease. I wouldn't be surprised if Nifty touches 8100.

Call-to-Action

Yesterday in my morning post Markets May Laze - Look Out For 8000 in Nifty , I had given buy call for two banking scrips of May Futures and same were bought as given below:-

1. SBI May Fut bought at 199. Target 206
2. Bankbaroda May Fut bought at 160.5. Target 166

Bank of India Apr Futures buy position is held with us. This needs to be squared off today by all means, since it is expiry day. Take following action in trade today :-

Bankindia Apr Fut to be sold at 99/100. It was bought at 98 and initial target given was 120.
Update : Roll over Bankindia Apr Futures to May Futures.