Banks Make Strong Comeback - How Much Have You Profited?

Banking sector was extremely bullish in trade today. Nifty opened with a gap up but could not sustain its position for long. Through the entire session, Nifty drifted lower, finally closing slightly in red at 7912.

Today morning, before markets opened, I gave a call for action in this post. Out of our 16 buy positions of Apr Futures held, 11 buy positions were listed in this post for selling, with modified targets.

Out of 11 buy positions recommended for selling, 8 scrips met their target in trade today. Let us calculate profit generated from these 8 Futures contracts.


April Futures Contracts Bought on 4 Apr 2016, Sold Today ( Check post here )

KTKBANK        :  Lot size= 4000, BP = 104, SP = 113. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                               Profit = (113-104=9) X 4000 = Rs 36000/-
                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 67000/-
                               Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 54% 

ALBK                 :  Lot size= 6000, BP = 57, SP = 61. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                               Profit = (61-57=4) X 6000 = Rs 24000/-
                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 69000/-
                               Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 35% 

UCOBANK         : Lot size= 10000, BP = 40, SP = 41.5. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                               Profit = (41.5-40=1.5) X 10000 = Rs 15000/-
                               Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 76000/-
                               Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 20% 

BANKBARODA : Lot size= 3100, BP = 150, SP = 156. Holding Period = 10 trading sessions 
                                Profit = (156-150=6) X 3100 = Rs 18600/-
                                Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 93000/-
                                Return on Investment ( in 10 days) = 20% 


April Futures Contracts Bought on 5 Apr 2016, Sold Today  ( Check post here )

ANDHRABANK        :  Lot size= 8000, BP = 53, SP = 57. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (57-53=4) X 8000 = Rs 32000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 76000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 42% 

SYNDIBANK              :  Lot size= 5000, BP = 67, SP = 71. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (71-67=4) X 5000 = Rs 20000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 60000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 33% 

CANBANK                  : Lot size= 2000, BP = 194, SP = 203. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (203-194=9) X 2000 = Rs 18000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 74000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 24% 

ORIENTBANK           : Lot size= 3000, BP = 94, SP = 98. Holding Period = 9 trading sessions 
                                        Profit = (98-94=4) X 3000 = Rs 12000/-
                                        Capital invested for 1 lot = Rs 56000/-
                                        Return on Investment ( in 9 days) = 21% 

After squaring off 8 long positions today, we are left with 8 more long positions in Apr Futures. Fresh targets for these remaining 8 Futures positions will be given in this blog tomorrow morning before markets open. So keep close watch.

More importantly, you would have realized the awesome power of Futures Trading in generating wealth. If you are keeping yourself away from futures trading for any reason, dump your inhibitions and jump on the bandwagon. I will guide you from the very basics, if you seek my help. Rest is your choice. Feel free to comment.

Green is Color of Day - Decisive Action In Markets Today

Yesterday Nifty closed absolutely flat at 7914 despite benign global markets and supportive oil situation.

Global markets are in fine fettle. Dow Jones closed 42 points higher at 18096. Oil is trading in green. Asian markets are also in green and SGX Nifty is up by 32 points. So Indian markets should open in green today.

In trade on Monday there was appearance of "Hanging Man" in Nifty chart. Hanging Man is a candlestick pattern which denotes bearish mood. Luckily in yesterday's trade, bearish angle of Hanging Man was negotiated by Nifty. This gives bullish slant to Indian markets.

Trading activities in today's session is going to be very crucial. Movement of Nifty in trade today will determine it's target.

If Nifty opens with a Gap-up above yesterday's high and maintains it's up-move throughout the session, then we will have a target for Nifty in range of 8300. If not, Nifty target could get restricted to 8000 level.

Call-to-Action

We have open long positions of Apr Futures Do take careful note of the following actions that you need to take in trade today :-

1. RPOWER Apr Fut to be sold at 53.5/54 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 50 and initial target given was 54. But if it opens with a strong gap up, then hold this position for target beyond 54.
2. IOB Apr Fut to be sold at 32.5/33 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 30 and initial target given was 36.
3. Albk Apr Fut to be sold at 60.5/61 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 57 and initial target given was 67.
4. IDBI Apr Fut to be sold at 74.5/75 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 71 and initial target given was 80.
5. UCOBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 41.5/42 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 40 and initial target given was 45.
6. CANBK Apr Fut to be sold at 202/203 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 194 and initial target given was 220.
7. KTKBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 112/113 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 104 and initial target given was 120.
8. SYNDIBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 70.5/71 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 67 and initial target given was 85.
9. ORIENTBANK Apr Fut to be sold at 97.5/98 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 94 and initial target given was 110.
10. ANDHRABANK Apr Fut to be sold at 56.5/57 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 53 and initial target given was 65.
11. BANKBARODA Apr Fut to be sold at 155/156 if it does not open with strong gap up. It was bought at 150 and initial target given was 170.

Current status of our 16 long positions in Apr Futures is given below:-

RPOWER :Bought 50,Close 52.45
IOB : Bought 30,Close 31.55

ALBK:Bought 57,Close 58.75

IDBI: Bought 71,Close 72.2

PNB: Bought 87,Close 84.6

SBI: Bought 195,Close 188
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Close 40.15
CANBK: Bought 194,Close 197.5

KTKBANK: Bought 104,Close 109.5

SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Close 69.05

BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 94.95
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Close 93.85
UNIONBANK:Bought134,Close127.6
ANDHRABANK:Bought53,Close 55
BANKBARODA:Buy150,Close152.7

HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 256.8

Hilarious Slip Up - Forgot Indian Markets are Closed Today

In my eagerness to give market updates to my audience before Indian markets opened for trading, I published a post forecasting market opening in green. Little did I realize that today is Mahavir Jayanti and Markets are closed!! That is called " Goof-up-Royale"

I have pulled out this ultra-hilarious and erroneous post from my blog site. Those who have got the link and are not able to open it, do not worry. It is deliberate action on my part to vacate the link and not some technical glitch.

Those who had opened the link while it was live on net, my apologies. But I guess those who could read the post while it was live would at least have had a good laugh. That is a good way to begin the day - isn't it?

Anyway, I will publish here some relevant portions from this snuffed- out post for your consumption. Here we go :-

Yesterday Nifty closed up by 64 points despite grim global situation precipitated by oil market crash. This I had predicted in my last post.

And if you have gone through my last post you would remember that though I had predicted oil plunging and global equity markets going down with it, I had categorically told you to buy Indian market on dip. My exact words before market opening were:  "SGX Nifty is down by about 30 points. So expect some weakness in Indian markets during early trades. Global factors notwithstanding, you should  be long on Indian markets on dips."

That is exactly what happened in trade yesterday. Nifty opened at 7908 and quickly fell down to 7843. Then slowly through the day it gained 64 points to close at 7915, near its day high of 7921.

Enjoy your holiday today and Happy Mahavir Jayanti !

No Deal In Doha - Where Does That Leave Indian Markets?

From global markets there is negative news. Doha Summit on Production Freeze of crude oil has failed on Sunday. This will cause a crash in oil prices for the time being and the contagion will spread to global equity markets. International Gold prices will rise as investors will run for cover to safe haven in Gold.

Must Read more on this here :-

World Waits with Bated Breath - Doha Summit Outcome
How will this Sunday Be- Black or Grey
Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

SGX Nifty is down by about 30 points. So expect some weakness in Indian markets during early trades. Global factors notwithstanding, you should  be long on Indian markets on dips. Why am I being so optimistic for Indian markets? Here's why:-

• Traders itching to have a go after long weekend (4 days lay off)
• Monsoon predicted to be above average in 2016 (106% of average 89 cm)
• March CPI inflation came at 4.83%, moving down from Feb data of 5.26%
• Feb IIP data moved up to (+)2% from (-)1.5% in Jan, and after contracting for past 3 months.

What more do you want from  internal environment to trade on the long side? So put on your riding shoes and ride the bull. 

Moreover, RBI Governor has indicated that he is ready for more rate cuts if there is good monsoon and inflation figures point lower. He revealed this to MarketWatch (Wall Street Magazine) economic correspondent in US at the sidelines of Spring Meetings of IMF and World Bank. You can catch more of that here. More monsoon is guaranteed, which will bring inflation further down, and with that will come a rate cut. This must be music to the ears of bulls, especially in banking sector.

Now let me give you the current status of our 16 long positions of Apr Futures which we are holding as per my recommendations.

RPOWER :Bought 50,Close 52.1
IOB : Bought 30,Close 30.6

ALBK:Bought 57,Close 56.85

IDBI: Bought 71,Close 70.1

PNB: Bought 87,Close 84.9

SBI: Bought 195,Close 192.4
UCOBANK: Bought 40,Close 39.5
CANBK: Bought 194,Close 196

KTKBANK: Bought 104,Close 106.6

SYNDIBANK: Bought 67,Close 68.35

BANKINDIA: Bought 98,Close 94.9
ORIENTBANK: Bought 94,Close 92.75
UNIONBANK:Bought134,Close131.6
ANDHRABANK:Bought53,Close 53.75
BANKBARODA:Buy150,Close153.1

HEXAWARE: Bought 268,Close 256.1

One Eyed King in Land of Blind - Says RBI Governor

RBI Governor is presently in US for Spring Meetings of  IMF and World Bank. Speaking to MarketWatch correspondent on sidelines of the Meet, +Raghuram Rajan  was candid and modest in admitting that there is lot of work yet to be done for India to claim the epithet of 'bright spot of global economy'.

Raghuram Rajan, on being quizzed how he has managed to steer India to being the bright spot of global economy, admitted modestly and realistically that India is not such a bright spot since there is still a long way to go. World including IMF is giving this badge to India because it is like "One-eyed King in land of blind". That tells the whole story of state of Global economy.

Raghuram Rajan hinted that he is ready for more cuts in repo rate, provided there is good monsoon and inflation cools down further. This is splendid news for banking sector. 

Met department has now made forecast of above average monsoon this year. And icing on cake is that March CPI inflation numbers have come out better than expected at 4.83 

Now Raghuram Rajan has to act and cut interest rates further, as equity market participants had earlier expected. This expectation was mentioned in my post RBI Cuts Rate - But Was It Enough? 

By his own admission RBI Governor will be cutting rates soon. This will be very positive boost to Indian markets, with banks leading the charge. Only dampening effect will come from global markets as crude prices are expected to fall after Doha Meet on Production Freeze on Sunday. Check it here.

But we shall overcome!. Bright spot of global economy has to perform after all.