Thursday, June 3, 2010
Concerns over Greece? What was so new about concerns over Greece on that particular day that stock prices had to be reduced to few cents and then made to rebound up to 70% within an hour or so? By the way, financial problems facing Greece was not a new fact uncovered that very day that market players had to sell off in utter shock anything and everything in sight in such tearing hurry. In fact on 17 Dec 2009 I had published a post titled "Debt Laden Dubai - When Will The Woes End?". In that post I had indicated that Greece and Spain were simmering with debt troubles and global investors were worried more on that account than Dubai defaulting. It was common knowledge in global investment circles for the last six months or so that Greece was tottering on a serious financial crisis and would be the first of the European nations to start the Domino Effect. Now would the regulators please explain to US public as to what really happened on 6th May 2010 and who were the extraordinary beneficiaries?
One can understand European markets selling off with one or the other bad news. First from the blocks was Greece with its credit contraction, then Spain bailing out one of its banks and then Germany banning short selling - all that is understood. In between North Korea brandishes its sword on South Korea and China goes on clean up drive to rein in inflation by pulling back some stimulus packages in small measures. Perfectly fine. But what would you say when Financial Times on 26th May tells investors with all authenticity that China was going to sell its reserve of Euro bonds. China holds about $ 630 billion in Euro bonds. That news sent jitters down the spine of global investors.
The shock waves created in Europe from the shattering news in Financial Times was so great that Euro currency nosedived and almost became serious competitor of Zimbabwean Dollar!! With it the European stocks were dragged down and US exports to Europe presented a great challenge. Pandemonium broke loose in global investment circles. Dow Jones lost 230 points from its day high. Investors were planning their exit strategies further when the very next day China in a surprise move rubbished the news of Financial Times and reiterated its faith in Euro and the European Union. European markets and Euro rebounded with zest and Dow Jones gathered 295 points extra weight.
In all this high drama, one thing stands out very clearly. Influential parties will go to any length and pull off any stunt to browbeat the investors. How can Financial Times, the venerable publication of global markets, be so callous as to publish a news which is so far from the truth? Who are responsible for painting such panic-setting scenarios? Has Financial Times apologized to the investors and to its readers? Will market regulators take some time off their busy schedule and look beneath the cover? Bizarre things are on the cards in global markets. There will be more rude shocks and many more deceptions. Wild swings will tear short term traders apart on both sides of the trade. Welcome to the Year of Volatility, because cartels are at work with a vengeance.
I will be providing more evidence of big boys of Wall Street who are working in cahoots with other big global players to swindle billions from honest investors. Watch this space for more on this issue of cartelization. Till that time just mull over the news that Wall Street investment banks have engaged lobbying firms for close to $ 450 million to block financial bank reforms in US. You will get to know more about big boys of stock markets and their Machiavellian plans in the sequel to this article. God save US investors!!
Monday, May 24, 2010
Away from the real world, even the financial world around us seems to be crashing. There is mayhem on the street as indices across the board are developing the habit of dropping 4% to 8% in single day's trading. Across the globe the events unfolding around us are quite unpleasant which have again turned this financial crisis into a pandemic contagion. From US to Europe to Asia, no financial market or asset class is being spared. Again the big guns of the financial world are behaving as if there is no tomorrow. There is a creeping feeling that czars of the financial world are up to their old ways of working in cartel, forcing volatility to be unimaginably high. Otherwise how can you explain Dow Jones losing 1009 points from its day-high and then gaining 651points from day-low on the fateful day of 6th May 2010. I call it fateful because I feel we should spare a thought for the retail investors in US who had to sell off their holdings thinking the Judgement Day was here, only to find that market has recovered 65% on the same day.
You can tow the official line of the Wall Street and believe that it was was glitch in the computer system, or someone inadvertently pushing the sell button. I really think these Wall Street guys have some guts, bandying out such outlandish explanation to what was clear work of cartelization. Here we are not discussing market index of some Banana Republic but market index of the most sophisticated and developed market on this planet. How can regulators in US take it lying down, because exactly after 10 trading sessions Dow Jones again fell to almost same low of 6th May but after first rising 140 points above the day high of 6th May. All this drama being enacted within a span of 12 sessions and yet the US regulators are uncannily silent on the issue. If such an incident had happened in any emerging market then thousands of censures and advisories would have been issued by the regulators and credit rating agencies. But this is Wall Street and they have the license to do anything to swindle the hapless retail investors.
The point I am trying to make is that irrational volatility is here to stay for some time, because bigwigs of the financial world have swung into action and they will do whatever to make market participants bleed both ways. Market bias is negative but beware of wild swings. Presently for investors in Indian market the key level to watch is Nifty 4842, which should not be violated if market has to move up from current level.
Friday, April 23, 2010
On this day of 22nd April 2010, volatility ruled the roost in Indian stock markets. One must admit that it was a tough day in office for traders. What started off as a uninspiring and unsteady rise from day low, accelerated into a spectacular bull charge at around 11AM. And from 1.30PM to 2.30PM markets threatened to break free from day's high of 5332. But that was not to be. Quite contrary to expectations, markets tumbled suddenly and dramatically to retrace almost all the intra-day gains, catching most traders on the wrong foot.
If we analyze intra-day movement of Nifty, we find that Nifty rocketed from day low of 5221 to a high of 5332. This means that Nifty notched up an intra-day gain of 111 points from day low. But from day high it plummeted to 5246 in the last hour of trade, which means that Nifty lost 86 points from day high. At close Nifty managed to lift itself by 20 odd points, but the damage was already done. Bulls were caught on the wrong foot and there was no place to hide for many long-side-intra-day-traders.
Against the backdrop of circumstances just described, let us now evaluate the performance of intra-day trades in stock futures which were executed as per my recommendations. Today I had given two sell calls of stock futures during market hours. This was at a time when the market was reverberating with the sound of bulls all around. Many may think that as an act of bravado or even misplaced defiance. But before jumping to any conclusion, it will be my earnest appeal to thoroughly examine the performance of these sell calls:-
1. Siemens Apr Futures:- Recommendation was for selling one lot between 734/736 for target of 725 with stop loss at 738. The scrip made a day high of 735 and fell sharply to hit the target. The point to note here is that in a raging intra-day bull market, the high of the scrip was exactly within the recommended sell price range. It was a Rs 2/- range given for a scrip worth 730 plus and yet the scrip could not break free of this tight sell range. Moreover, notice the tight stop loss of just Rs 2/- above the recommended selling price.
Now for calculating profit, if we take the average of the recommended price range then our sell price works out as 735. This sell position met the given target at 725, thereby accruing a profit of Rs 10/- per share. Since the lot size is 752, total profit = 10x752 = 7520/-
2. India Infoline Apr Futures:-It was recommended to be sold between 117/118 for target of 115 and stop loss of 119. The scrip reached a high of 117.35 and then started falling. As the scrip fell, the target of 115 was met. If we take a careful look, here again the scrip could not break out of the recommended selling price range of 117-118. Even the stop loss given was only Re 1/- above the selling range.
For the purpose of calculating profit it is assumed that one could sell at 117.25 and then covered the position at given target of 115. Since the lot size is 2500, total profit = 2.25x2500 = 5625/-
Overall profit in intra-day trade from selling two stock futures = 7520+5625 = 13145/-
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
I have been busy connecting to a community of 15000 plus members who are into investing in stock markets in India. This community interacts at a platform hosted by http://www.stockezy.com/ which is fast becoming the leader in this novel concept of community investing.
As a social networking platform for investing in stock markets, Stockezy can also be termed loosely as Community Investing Fund, akin to Mutual Fund. The essential difference is that here every member is a Fund Manager controlling his own funds. The community aspect only helps each Fund Manager to tap intellectual resources of other members of the community, which in turn helps him in firming up his own mind before making any stock market investment.
As Stockezy grows in strength, the following announcement from the site reaches the length and breadth of India, echoing across various dailies and financial newspapers and periodicals:-
Social network to connect, educate & empower investors.Stockezy is an effective platform where investors help investors and work together to make informed financial decisions. Whether you are a seasoned trader or new to stocks; Stockezy is the place for you.
You may check out my contribution to http://www.stockezy.com/ , a pioneer site on social investing on internet, by following the links given below:-
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Indian markets have confounded most investors waiting for a deep correction to invest money for long term. The rally in Nifty that began on 06 Mar 2009 from a low of 2539 has been relentless in its intensity and reach. What initially seemed like a bear market rally has turned out to be a major Bull turnaround. Most retail investors have been left out of this stupendous rally and have been waiting ever since for a correction to invest for long term.
On 08 Nov 2009 when Nifty had closed in previous session at 4796, I had written a post titled Sensex And Nifty : Expected Movement Ahead. In that post I had mentioned that Nifty will reach the selling zone of 5320-5580 before a serious correction takes place, provided we receive positive Trans Atlantic Triggers (TAT). Having received positive TAT, on 15 Nov 2009 I again reiterated my point in a post titled Trans Atlantic Triggers - Did You Receive Those Signals? by concluding that "Nifty and Sensex should reach their respective selling zones before correcting" . At that point Nifty was trading at 4999 and from there marched on to reach a high of 5311 on 06 Jan 2010. After that Nifty corrected to a low of 4675 on 08 Feb 2010, a decent correction of 636 Nifty points.
The journey upwards from 4760 has now taken Nifty to a high of 5400 on 07 Apr 2010. Remember Nifty has again entered its selling zone of 5320-5580 and should witness correction any time within this selling zone. The headroom available from Nifty closing of 5362 on 09 Apr 2010 is only 200 odd Nifty points before any correction takes place.
Now the pertinent question that begs an answer is "How much will Nifty correct from its selling zone?". In other words, where will be the first support for any correction so that buying can be initiated? Well one can expect a support for Nifty in the region of 5050/5100. Hope you make the most out of trading with expected Nifty movement.